$SOL five long bearish candles smashed down, and none of them put up a decent resistance.
From 122 it fell all the way to 107 over four days, down 12%. Not a slow bleed—it's a high-volume liquidation sell-off. At 12:00 today, the 4-hour candlestick had $1.194 billion in trading value, which is 2.31 times the average of the previous 20 candles. When volume is pushed to this level, it means someone is truly running for the exit—not just washing the market.
The signals on the chart are very straightforward: it broke down. The big bearish candle at 01:00 on 10-07 dropped from 120.66 straight to 118.18, punching through the lower boundary of the five-day trading range. After that, the rebound didn’t exceed 119.04, and then it continued lower. Today was even more brutal: it opened at 113.12 and dumped straight to 108.04. Support at 105.61 is today’s low. Once it breaks this level, there isn’t much meaningful support below.
Market sentiment is panicky. The funding rate is negative, -0.0028% per 8h. Shorts are paying; longs are collecting—but the longs didn’t manage to hold. In the past 24 hours, it’s down 7.23%, from a high of 116.75 to a low of 105.61, with a 10% amplitude. This kind of amplitude combined with a negative funding rate suggests shorts are adding aggressively, and longs are cutting positions without hesitation.
To gauge the activity of big players, just look at volume. The 12:00 candle on 10-05 had $419 million in trading value, and the 12:00 candle on 10-06 had $413 million—both were high-volume declines. Today’s 12:00 candle is even more extreme at $1.194 billion. Every time it falls at key levels, it does so with volume; retail investors can’t smash it like this. Someone is systematically reducing exposure.
The volume-price structure is a classic short-dominated pattern: selling rises on the way down, and volume shrinks on the rebounds. The rebound at 04:00 on 10-07 to 119.04 had only $196 million in trading value. The rebound at 04:00 on 10-08 to 115.79 had $456 million. There’s no sign of bottom-fishing; each rebound is a chance to reduce positions.
On the candlestick details: the candle at 12:00 on 10-08 is the most deadly. It opened at 113.12, peaked at 113.29, almost no rebound, and then it kept getting smashed down to 108.04. There are hardly any upper wicks—just a big solid bearish candle. Later, the 16:00 candle wicked down to 105.61 at the lowest, and closed at 107.85. The lower wick is long, but volume shrank to 797 million, so the rebound strength looks questionable.
SOL is a public chain project. It has high TPS and low fees, and the DeFi and NFT ecosystems are all built on it. The fundamentals haven’t produced any major negative news, but the price action shows that capital is casting votes. It fell 15% over five days; volume and price aren’t aligned for a rebound, so selling pressure on rallies is heavy.
My view is bearish. With five consecutive bearish candles and volume higher than 2.31x, there’s no sign of a stop-the-fall signal in the short term. 105.61 is the last hurdle. If it breaks, that’s a new low. If rebounds can’t get above 113, shorts will remain in control.
Nini’s plan: current price is 107.85. If it breaks below 105.61, don’t bottom-fish—wait and see at the 100 integer level. If it rebounds and holds above 113, take a light long position and set a stop-loss at 108. At this level, we’ll stay on the sidelines.
If you need a strategy customized to you, you can find Nini.
#SOL #Layer1 #public chain
From 122 it fell all the way to 107 over four days, down 12%. Not a slow bleed—it's a high-volume liquidation sell-off. At 12:00 today, the 4-hour candlestick had $1.194 billion in trading value, which is 2.31 times the average of the previous 20 candles. When volume is pushed to this level, it means someone is truly running for the exit—not just washing the market.
The signals on the chart are very straightforward: it broke down. The big bearish candle at 01:00 on 10-07 dropped from 120.66 straight to 118.18, punching through the lower boundary of the five-day trading range. After that, the rebound didn’t exceed 119.04, and then it continued lower. Today was even more brutal: it opened at 113.12 and dumped straight to 108.04. Support at 105.61 is today’s low. Once it breaks this level, there isn’t much meaningful support below.
Market sentiment is panicky. The funding rate is negative, -0.0028% per 8h. Shorts are paying; longs are collecting—but the longs didn’t manage to hold. In the past 24 hours, it’s down 7.23%, from a high of 116.75 to a low of 105.61, with a 10% amplitude. This kind of amplitude combined with a negative funding rate suggests shorts are adding aggressively, and longs are cutting positions without hesitation.
To gauge the activity of big players, just look at volume. The 12:00 candle on 10-05 had $419 million in trading value, and the 12:00 candle on 10-06 had $413 million—both were high-volume declines. Today’s 12:00 candle is even more extreme at $1.194 billion. Every time it falls at key levels, it does so with volume; retail investors can’t smash it like this. Someone is systematically reducing exposure.
The volume-price structure is a classic short-dominated pattern: selling rises on the way down, and volume shrinks on the rebounds. The rebound at 04:00 on 10-07 to 119.04 had only $196 million in trading value. The rebound at 04:00 on 10-08 to 115.79 had $456 million. There’s no sign of bottom-fishing; each rebound is a chance to reduce positions.
On the candlestick details: the candle at 12:00 on 10-08 is the most deadly. It opened at 113.12, peaked at 113.29, almost no rebound, and then it kept getting smashed down to 108.04. There are hardly any upper wicks—just a big solid bearish candle. Later, the 16:00 candle wicked down to 105.61 at the lowest, and closed at 107.85. The lower wick is long, but volume shrank to 797 million, so the rebound strength looks questionable.
SOL is a public chain project. It has high TPS and low fees, and the DeFi and NFT ecosystems are all built on it. The fundamentals haven’t produced any major negative news, but the price action shows that capital is casting votes. It fell 15% over five days; volume and price aren’t aligned for a rebound, so selling pressure on rallies is heavy.
My view is bearish. With five consecutive bearish candles and volume higher than 2.31x, there’s no sign of a stop-the-fall signal in the short term. 105.61 is the last hurdle. If it breaks, that’s a new low. If rebounds can’t get above 113, shorts will remain in control.
Nini’s plan: current price is 107.85. If it breaks below 105.61, don’t bottom-fish—wait and see at the 100 integer level. If it rebounds and holds above 113, take a light long position and set a stop-loss at 108. At this level, we’ll stay on the sidelines.
If you need a strategy customized to you, you can find Nini.
#SOL #Layer1 #public chain