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In this pullback, what I care about most isn’t how much it dropped, but rather:
Why it only dropped this much.
There have actually been quite a few macro negatives recently.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.7, and the 10-year is around 5.3; expectations of another rate hike this year have been reinforced; oil prices and inflation pressures are back; and Russia’s suspected plague incident has also stirred up some panic.
In the past, if many of these pieces of news appeared on their own, they would have been enough for BTC to drop.
But now, with several bad factors coming together, BTC has only pulled back about 5%.
So I’ve always felt:
The news is only the surface. The way price reacts to the news is what truly conveys information.
Most people trade, in fact, are driven by emotions.
When prices rise, they see only good news; when prices fall, they see only bad news.
But only a small number can sift through the many surface-level signals and find the genuinely useful information.
All appearances are illusory.
When negative news keeps increasing, yet price keeps falling less and less—doesn’t that itself indicate something?
This is somewhat similar to the time at 58,000, but not entirely.
At 58,000, after extreme pessimism, the market began to show signs of “selling that just can’t happen.”
Now, in a strong trend, macro pressures keep piling on, but the price still hasn’t been truly broken down.
So for now, I don’t think it will directly fall to 78,000, and I don’t think it will reach 74,000 either.
But trading doesn’t require you to prove you’re always right.
If it breaks below 79,000, I’ll start reducing my position.
If the daily closes below 78,000, all remaining long positions will exit.
If it doesn’t break down, then keep holding.
In this pullback, what I care about most isn’t how much it dropped, but rather:
Why it only dropped this much.
There have actually been quite a few macro negatives recently.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.7, and the 10-year is around 5.3; expectations of another rate hike this year have been reinforced; oil prices and inflation pressures are back; and Russia’s suspected plague incident has also stirred up some panic.
In the past, if many of these pieces of news appeared on their own, they would have been enough for BTC to drop.
But now, with several bad factors coming together, BTC has only pulled back about 5%.
So I’ve always felt:
The news is only the surface. The way price reacts to the news is what truly conveys information.
Most people trade, in fact, are driven by emotions.
When prices rise, they see only good news; when prices fall, they see only bad news.
But only a small number can sift through the many surface-level signals and find the genuinely useful information.
All appearances are illusory.
When negative news keeps increasing, yet price keeps falling less and less—doesn’t that itself indicate something?
This is somewhat similar to the time at 58,000, but not entirely.
At 58,000, after extreme pessimism, the market began to show signs of “selling that just can’t happen.”
Now, in a strong trend, macro pressures keep piling on, but the price still hasn’t been truly broken down.
So for now, I don’t think it will directly fall to 78,000, and I don’t think it will reach 74,000 either.
But trading doesn’t require you to prove you’re always right.
If it breaks below 79,000, I’ll start reducing my position.
If the daily closes below 78,000, all remaining long positions will exit.
If it doesn’t break down, then keep holding.