“Rolling over” has been trending recently, and the story is always the same: a small amount of capital, a few times leverage to ride a big trend, then roll it
dozens of times, multiplying it by tens of times. Today, let’s talk about the parts it didn’t tell you.
【What rolling over is doing】The unrealized profit isn’t locked in; instead, it’s treated as margin for a new position to keep opening trades,
It’s like taking market money and adding leverage. The trend keeps going, and compounding is astonishing; once the trend stops,
points can drop to zero—just a couple of big bearish candles.
【The mathematical truth】The essence of “rolling over” is simply “continuously betting correctly.” Suppose you win with a 60% probability each time—then the chance of getting four in a row is
only 13%. The “overnight double” posts you see are backed by 99 people whose accounts have already been deleted.
Survivorship bias is the most expensive thing in this industry.
[If you absolutely have to try] 1. Use only the portion of money you wouldn’t mind losing all of; 2. Roll over with unrealized gains.
At a certain multiple, forcefully withdraw the principal, and keep rolling using the market’s money; 3. Write off the zeroing plan in advance.
A contingency plan. Rolling out positions is fireworks, not a way to live. Don’t use money for daily life—put it into fireworks.
What do you think? Share your experience in the comments.