Here is the analysis of the gold long-term trend on October 8, Starry Natural:
On the 4-hour timeframe, the previous peak at 4300 started a deep decline, with the low probing down to 4066. The current price is 4120. After bottoming, price has gradually stabilized and closed on rising candles. The long-term downward momentum appears to be exhausted, and a bottom-repairing market is underway.
The People’s Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings for 23 months. In September, it added 740,000 ounces. Meanwhile, September’s nonfarm payrolls only added 29,000, far below expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October has fallen to below 20%. The Fed’s September minutes indicate that most officials believe another rate hike could occur before year-end, with the December rate-hike expectation around 60%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly touched 5.365%, the highest since 2002. The U.S. Dollar Index has held steady above 102.
Resistance levels above: 4143 (strong resistance 4183). Support levels below: 4103 (strong support 4066).
Trading direction: Buy on pullbacks
Entry: Enter long orders in the 4105–4110 pullback range
Stop loss: Below 4066. If price breaks that level, the bottom-repair thesis will be invalidated
Targets: First target 4143, second target 4183
Key to watch: The U.S. September CPI data on October 14 and the subsequent direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Central bank gold purchases and weakening employment provide support for the bottom, but expectations of a December rate hike hovering overhead and elevated long-end yields limit the rebound’s height. Participate in long positions with light sizing; if yields surge again, you should exit in a timely manner.$XAU #币安推出BinanceIntelligence
On the 4-hour timeframe, the previous peak at 4300 started a deep decline, with the low probing down to 4066. The current price is 4120. After bottoming, price has gradually stabilized and closed on rising candles. The long-term downward momentum appears to be exhausted, and a bottom-repairing market is underway.
The People’s Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings for 23 months. In September, it added 740,000 ounces. Meanwhile, September’s nonfarm payrolls only added 29,000, far below expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October has fallen to below 20%. The Fed’s September minutes indicate that most officials believe another rate hike could occur before year-end, with the December rate-hike expectation around 60%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly touched 5.365%, the highest since 2002. The U.S. Dollar Index has held steady above 102.
Resistance levels above: 4143 (strong resistance 4183). Support levels below: 4103 (strong support 4066).
Trading direction: Buy on pullbacks
Entry: Enter long orders in the 4105–4110 pullback range
Stop loss: Below 4066. If price breaks that level, the bottom-repair thesis will be invalidated
Targets: First target 4143, second target 4183
Key to watch: The U.S. September CPI data on October 14 and the subsequent direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Central bank gold purchases and weakening employment provide support for the bottom, but expectations of a December rate hike hovering overhead and elevated long-end yields limit the rebound’s height. Participate in long positions with light sizing; if yields surge again, you should exit in a timely manner.$XAU #币安推出BinanceIntelligence