Encryption | Tomorrow’s Forecast | October 9: OGN surges 89% in a single day, but I still dare not touch it, BTC is squeezing around 82,000 for a big move
First, let me say something from the heart: today’s market looks pretty calm. $BTC is down only 0.35%, but the more I watch, the more I can’t sleep. Low volume sideways + altcoins wildly bouncing—this combo is something I know too well. It’s probably the eve of a breakout.
Let’s look at the broader market first. BTC is currently 82,579. It dipped to a low of 81,715 today and got bought right back up, showing that buy orders really are sitting in the 81,700–82,000 zone. But every time price tried to push above 83,650, it failed twice to hold—so it’s basically trapped in a narrow box of less than 2,000 points. Years of trading have taught me this: the narrower the range, the more violent the breakout it produces.
Tomorrow, I’ll watch two levels: a breakout with volume and a firm hold above 83,600—then look toward 85,000; if it breaks below 81,700 and can’t reclaim it, the 80,000 psychological level will be tested.
$ETH is down 1.16% but it’s holding the 2,500 support. Resistance is around 2,586. It’s slightly more stable than BTC, but overall it’s still weak and consolidating.
Why am I overall cautious? Look at $SOL —you’ll get it. The overall market is down just 0.35%, yet SOL is down 2.86%, closing at 112, the hardest hit among major coins. 111 is today’s low, and it’s the first support I’m watching tomorrow. If that breaks, I’ll look for the 105 area. Upside resistance is around 117.
This structure—major leaders lagging plus altcoin frenzy—is something I’ve seen in several past cycles. Funds withdraw from large caps and rush to “small tickets” for the final carnival. After the carnival ends, it’s usually a mess.
Now, let’s talk about the most eye-catching thing today: OGN, up 89% in 24 hours. Back in my early days, I would’ve gone in with full size instantly—only to get trapped at the top, and I paid tuition. That’s why I’m writing this post today. Later, I did a replay and tracked one data point: among the TOP 20 coins on the gainers list, 78% fully retreated within one hour. Coins that truly broke out? 0%.
To translate it: the moment you see it on the chart’s top gainers list, it’s basically near the end of the move. The chance of chasing the gainers list is even worse than flipping a coin. MET is up 37%, STRK up 26%—same idea. Just look, don’t get carried away.
So what’s worth paying attention to tomorrow? Before bed, I scanned my own signal system—three directions:
1、Slow-bull candidates: GTC has quietly ground up 94% over a week, and funding rates are negative—price is rising, but short contracts are still stubbornly holding. This setup usually plays out one of two ways: either shorts get squeezed later, or the whales lure longs to dump into them. We’ll know tomorrow—I’m putting a small bet on the former. RLC is a similar story too; it’s ground up 105% over the week.
2、Deep-dip lurking pool: RECALL, TRUTH, and others that fell 75–80% from their highs and have been moving sideways for 60–70 days. Volume is squeezed down to basically nothing. These coins don’t move—until they do, and then it starts at 30%+… But the setups on the left side are a game of patience; you can’t rush it.
3、Anomaly alert: FLOCK’s trading volume is 38 times its usual level. That means either something big is happening, or the market maker is just “self-entertaining.” Watching with a small position is fine; going heavy is basically handing over money.
On the event side: on my calendar tomorrow there aren’t any particularly major economic releases or big unlocks. The main variables are still the mood of US stocks and the direction BTC chooses. With no external force helping, it’s purely the market deciding for itself.
So my plan for tomorrow boils down to three lines: don’t touch new long positions, don’t add to spot holdings, and set a unified stop-loss for all open positions below 81,700. If BTC breaks above 83,600 with volume, I’ll admit my mistake and it won’t be too late to chase—this market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is capital.
Of course, all of the above is just my personal judgment. Getting slapped happens all the time. Last week I felt it would break down; instead it chopped sideways all week 😂 If tomorrow it directly holds above 85,000, then pretend I didn’t say it tonight.
Final interaction: What do you think BTC will do first tomorrow—touch 83,600, or break 81,700 first? A: Break upward. B: Break down. C: Continue playing dead. Drop a letter in the comments; come back at the same time tomorrow night for the answer.
First, let me say something from the heart: today’s market looks pretty calm. $BTC is down only 0.35%, but the more I watch, the more I can’t sleep. Low volume sideways + altcoins wildly bouncing—this combo is something I know too well. It’s probably the eve of a breakout.
Let’s look at the broader market first. BTC is currently 82,579. It dipped to a low of 81,715 today and got bought right back up, showing that buy orders really are sitting in the 81,700–82,000 zone. But every time price tried to push above 83,650, it failed twice to hold—so it’s basically trapped in a narrow box of less than 2,000 points. Years of trading have taught me this: the narrower the range, the more violent the breakout it produces.
Tomorrow, I’ll watch two levels: a breakout with volume and a firm hold above 83,600—then look toward 85,000; if it breaks below 81,700 and can’t reclaim it, the 80,000 psychological level will be tested.
$ETH is down 1.16% but it’s holding the 2,500 support. Resistance is around 2,586. It’s slightly more stable than BTC, but overall it’s still weak and consolidating.
Why am I overall cautious? Look at $SOL —you’ll get it. The overall market is down just 0.35%, yet SOL is down 2.86%, closing at 112, the hardest hit among major coins. 111 is today’s low, and it’s the first support I’m watching tomorrow. If that breaks, I’ll look for the 105 area. Upside resistance is around 117.
This structure—major leaders lagging plus altcoin frenzy—is something I’ve seen in several past cycles. Funds withdraw from large caps and rush to “small tickets” for the final carnival. After the carnival ends, it’s usually a mess.
Now, let’s talk about the most eye-catching thing today: OGN, up 89% in 24 hours. Back in my early days, I would’ve gone in with full size instantly—only to get trapped at the top, and I paid tuition. That’s why I’m writing this post today. Later, I did a replay and tracked one data point: among the TOP 20 coins on the gainers list, 78% fully retreated within one hour. Coins that truly broke out? 0%.
To translate it: the moment you see it on the chart’s top gainers list, it’s basically near the end of the move. The chance of chasing the gainers list is even worse than flipping a coin. MET is up 37%, STRK up 26%—same idea. Just look, don’t get carried away.
So what’s worth paying attention to tomorrow? Before bed, I scanned my own signal system—three directions:
1、Slow-bull candidates: GTC has quietly ground up 94% over a week, and funding rates are negative—price is rising, but short contracts are still stubbornly holding. This setup usually plays out one of two ways: either shorts get squeezed later, or the whales lure longs to dump into them. We’ll know tomorrow—I’m putting a small bet on the former. RLC is a similar story too; it’s ground up 105% over the week.
2、Deep-dip lurking pool: RECALL, TRUTH, and others that fell 75–80% from their highs and have been moving sideways for 60–70 days. Volume is squeezed down to basically nothing. These coins don’t move—until they do, and then it starts at 30%+… But the setups on the left side are a game of patience; you can’t rush it.
3、Anomaly alert: FLOCK’s trading volume is 38 times its usual level. That means either something big is happening, or the market maker is just “self-entertaining.” Watching with a small position is fine; going heavy is basically handing over money.
On the event side: on my calendar tomorrow there aren’t any particularly major economic releases or big unlocks. The main variables are still the mood of US stocks and the direction BTC chooses. With no external force helping, it’s purely the market deciding for itself.
So my plan for tomorrow boils down to three lines: don’t touch new long positions, don’t add to spot holdings, and set a unified stop-loss for all open positions below 81,700. If BTC breaks above 83,600 with volume, I’ll admit my mistake and it won’t be too late to chase—this market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is capital.
Of course, all of the above is just my personal judgment. Getting slapped happens all the time. Last week I felt it would break down; instead it chopped sideways all week 😂 If tomorrow it directly holds above 85,000, then pretend I didn’t say it tonight.
Final interaction: What do you think BTC will do first tomorrow—touch 83,600, or break 81,700 first? A: Break upward. B: Break down. C: Continue playing dead. Drop a letter in the comments; come back at the same time tomorrow night for the answer.