Today a friend asked me, “ETH is down to 2538—can I bottom-fish?” I looked at the data and told him: “Just wait a bit.
It’s not that I don’t want to buy. There’s one contract metric that makes me uneasy. While the price is falling, the big-holder long/short ratio is up to 2.63, and the number-of-positions long/short ratio is 3.56—both are at recent high levels. What does that mean? It means both whales and retail traders are adding to longs. In theory, if the market is dropping, some people should be exiting. But instead, longs are actually increasing.
I’ve seen this kind of structure many times. It often isn’t a bottom—it’s a continuation during a selloff. Because once the price keeps weakening, this batch of longs can turn into the targets.
Then look at the 4-hour RSI—it’s already down to 15, and the 1-hour RSI is at 35. Yes, it’s oversold. But oversold only suggests a possible bounce; it doesn’t mean a reversal is guaranteed. Open interest climbed from 4.5M to 4.9M, but the latest 4-hour candle dropped again—there’s money pulling back. Net active buy/sell volume recently shows sell orders slightly dominating. The basis is at a discount (futures trading at a spread), and sentiment is bearish.
Resistance is at 2551–2562. If the rebound goes there and stalls, I would consider going short. If 2516 breaks down with volume and you can’t bounce back on the retest, then I’ll also go short. There’s only one scenario where I’d go long: if the price quickly dips below 2516 and then quickly snaps back above it, while OI clearly declines—then it could be just a washout.
At this point, do you think 2516 can hold? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$ETH #eth
It’s not that I don’t want to buy. There’s one contract metric that makes me uneasy. While the price is falling, the big-holder long/short ratio is up to 2.63, and the number-of-positions long/short ratio is 3.56—both are at recent high levels. What does that mean? It means both whales and retail traders are adding to longs. In theory, if the market is dropping, some people should be exiting. But instead, longs are actually increasing.
I’ve seen this kind of structure many times. It often isn’t a bottom—it’s a continuation during a selloff. Because once the price keeps weakening, this batch of longs can turn into the targets.
Then look at the 4-hour RSI—it’s already down to 15, and the 1-hour RSI is at 35. Yes, it’s oversold. But oversold only suggests a possible bounce; it doesn’t mean a reversal is guaranteed. Open interest climbed from 4.5M to 4.9M, but the latest 4-hour candle dropped again—there’s money pulling back. Net active buy/sell volume recently shows sell orders slightly dominating. The basis is at a discount (futures trading at a spread), and sentiment is bearish.
Resistance is at 2551–2562. If the rebound goes there and stalls, I would consider going short. If 2516 breaks down with volume and you can’t bounce back on the retest, then I’ll also go short. There’s only one scenario where I’d go long: if the price quickly dips below 2516 and then quickly snaps back above it, while OI clearly declines—then it could be just a washout.
At this point, do you think 2516 can hold? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$ETH #eth
