Tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor released initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3: actual 197,000, market expectation 200,000, and the prior figure 199,000. In the same period, continuing claims rose to around 1.71 million, while the four-week moving average stayed below 200,000.
On its own, the 197,000 figure falls in a low range, suggesting that the U.S. labor market remains tight and that companies are not strongly inclined to lay off workers. What is truly worth paying attention to in the crypto market is that, when combined with yesterday’s release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, it forms a complete transmission chain.
The minutes’ key message is that the September rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% was passed unanimously. Participants generally believed that inflation risks remain tilted upward. Multiple policymakers explicitly stated that a “higher path for interest rates is necessary,” not that “it can be stopped.” A crucial line in the minutes says that the risk to the employment market has declined and that the situation is roughly balanced. This implies that the biggest concern the Fed has used over the past two years to restrain rate hikes—fear of breaking the economy—has been fading.
This evening’s initial claims data provides fresh evidence for that assessment: employment is not showing problems, and inflation has not returned to 2%. With that, the threshold for additional hikes becomes lower. The market is already pricing in this logic—10-year Treasury yields have surged to 5.35%, the highest since April 2002; the U.S. Dollar Index is back above 102, approaching a nearly 18-month high. The probability of pausing rate hikes in October is about 82%, but the probability of an additional hike in December still remains above 60%.
The transmission mechanism for $BTC is quite clear: a stronger U.S. dollar index plus rising long-end yields means global U.S. dollar liquidity is tightening. That lifts the discount rate for risk assets, causing funds to rotate from high-volatility assets toward risk-free yield. The most direct evidence is fund flows: on the day the minutes were released, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $487 million. The previous day was net inflow, and the one-day reversal magnitude shows that institutional capital is highly sensitive to the interest-rate path.
What needs to be distinguished is that the driving force behind this drop is liquidation of concentrated leveraged positions (about $550 million in 24-hour liquidations, mainly long positions). This is an adjustment in positioning structure, not a distribution of spot holdings. The indicator that truly determines the medium-term direction of $BTC is September CPI to be released on October 14. If core inflation cools, there will be room for terminal rate expectations to fall, and valuation pressure will truly ease. Before CPI data lands, the macro environment offers no clear direction—so the market can only move with volatility.
#BTC #crypto
On its own, the 197,000 figure falls in a low range, suggesting that the U.S. labor market remains tight and that companies are not strongly inclined to lay off workers. What is truly worth paying attention to in the crypto market is that, when combined with yesterday’s release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, it forms a complete transmission chain.
The minutes’ key message is that the September rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% was passed unanimously. Participants generally believed that inflation risks remain tilted upward. Multiple policymakers explicitly stated that a “higher path for interest rates is necessary,” not that “it can be stopped.” A crucial line in the minutes says that the risk to the employment market has declined and that the situation is roughly balanced. This implies that the biggest concern the Fed has used over the past two years to restrain rate hikes—fear of breaking the economy—has been fading.
This evening’s initial claims data provides fresh evidence for that assessment: employment is not showing problems, and inflation has not returned to 2%. With that, the threshold for additional hikes becomes lower. The market is already pricing in this logic—10-year Treasury yields have surged to 5.35%, the highest since April 2002; the U.S. Dollar Index is back above 102, approaching a nearly 18-month high. The probability of pausing rate hikes in October is about 82%, but the probability of an additional hike in December still remains above 60%.
The transmission mechanism for $BTC is quite clear: a stronger U.S. dollar index plus rising long-end yields means global U.S. dollar liquidity is tightening. That lifts the discount rate for risk assets, causing funds to rotate from high-volatility assets toward risk-free yield. The most direct evidence is fund flows: on the day the minutes were released, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $487 million. The previous day was net inflow, and the one-day reversal magnitude shows that institutional capital is highly sensitive to the interest-rate path.
What needs to be distinguished is that the driving force behind this drop is liquidation of concentrated leveraged positions (about $550 million in 24-hour liquidations, mainly long positions). This is an adjustment in positioning structure, not a distribution of spot holdings. The indicator that truly determines the medium-term direction of $BTC is September CPI to be released on October 14. If core inflation cools, there will be room for terminal rate expectations to fall, and valuation pressure will truly ease. Before CPI data lands, the macro environment offers no clear direction—so the market can only move with volatility.
#BTC #crypto