Impact on U.S. equities
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.71%, its highest level since 2002. Under pressure from higher discount rates, growth stocks and crypto-related stocks came under pressure in tandem, with Coinbase, $MSTRB , Circle, and others showing high beta to crypto prices.
AI is siphoning off capital: Citi raised its earnings outlook for TSMC, and the semiconductor upcycle continues. The rotation of capital from crypto into AI computing stocks is ongoing.
With the midterm elections approaching, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin have both historically posted gains in the 12 months after midterm elections. The election window itself is fueling a wait-and-see mood.
Impact on crypto markets
Bull and bear factors are at odds: Citi, JPMorgan, and the White House reserve strategy underpin the medium-term bullish case, while slowing ETF inflows, Treasury yields at new highs, and signs that Bitmine's buying power has peaked are near-term headwinds.
The market is clearly moving structurally: BTC and major coins are consolidating within the 82,000–87,300 range. Capital is concentrated in coins with independent narratives; $NEAR, $STRK, and $JUP are showing independent strength, while altcoins without a narrative continue to drift lower.
Key macro event: The Fed's policy meeting is on October 28. If its stance is more hawkish than expected, BTC could fall to 79,682 (EMA50); if it is moderate, the odds of a cup-and-handle breakout above 87,300 will increase.
Impact on Hong Kong stocks
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it will crack down on unlicensed payment platforms. Tighter regulation is proceeding alongside efforts to bring platforms under a licensing regime, benefiting licensed institutions.
Standard Chartered's custody business is set to launch in Hong Kong in mid-2026, opening up a crypto custody channel for Hong Kong institutions and benefiting local licensed exchanges and custody-related stocks.
Hong Kong AI stocks have come under pressure from price cuts by overseas large language models. Claude Haiku 5.5 is now priced at one-tenth the price of the previous generation, sending Hong Kong AI stocks broadly lower. $MINIMAX fell more than 10%, and crypto assets seen as spillover plays on the AI theme are also under sentiment pressure.
Moonshot AI is rumored to be preparing for a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation of $50 billion, while Kling AI has begun its listing process. This is lifting the valuation benchmark for Hong Kong AI assets and indirectly supporting the combined AI-and-crypto narrative.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.71%, its highest level since 2002. Under pressure from higher discount rates, growth stocks and crypto-related stocks came under pressure in tandem, with Coinbase, $MSTRB , Circle, and others showing high beta to crypto prices.
AI is siphoning off capital: Citi raised its earnings outlook for TSMC, and the semiconductor upcycle continues. The rotation of capital from crypto into AI computing stocks is ongoing.
With the midterm elections approaching, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin have both historically posted gains in the 12 months after midterm elections. The election window itself is fueling a wait-and-see mood.
Impact on crypto markets
Bull and bear factors are at odds: Citi, JPMorgan, and the White House reserve strategy underpin the medium-term bullish case, while slowing ETF inflows, Treasury yields at new highs, and signs that Bitmine's buying power has peaked are near-term headwinds.
The market is clearly moving structurally: BTC and major coins are consolidating within the 82,000–87,300 range. Capital is concentrated in coins with independent narratives; $NEAR, $STRK, and $JUP are showing independent strength, while altcoins without a narrative continue to drift lower.
Key macro event: The Fed's policy meeting is on October 28. If its stance is more hawkish than expected, BTC could fall to 79,682 (EMA50); if it is moderate, the odds of a cup-and-handle breakout above 87,300 will increase.
Impact on Hong Kong stocks
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it will crack down on unlicensed payment platforms. Tighter regulation is proceeding alongside efforts to bring platforms under a licensing regime, benefiting licensed institutions.
Standard Chartered's custody business is set to launch in Hong Kong in mid-2026, opening up a crypto custody channel for Hong Kong institutions and benefiting local licensed exchanges and custody-related stocks.
Hong Kong AI stocks have come under pressure from price cuts by overseas large language models. Claude Haiku 5.5 is now priced at one-tenth the price of the previous generation, sending Hong Kong AI stocks broadly lower. $MINIMAX fell more than 10%, and crypto assets seen as spillover plays on the AI theme are also under sentiment pressure.
Moonshot AI is rumored to be preparing for a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation of $50 billion, while Kling AI has begun its listing process. This is lifting the valuation benchmark for Hong Kong AI assets and indirectly supporting the combined AI-and-crypto narrative.