Arthur Hayes just published a post laying out the pattern of the past twenty years: every major technology infrastructure buildout has been overbuilt, then crashed, and ultimately ended in a bailout. He believes AI will follow the same path, and that the liquidity unleashed by the crash will flow into $BTC and the broader crypto market.

Less than half an hour before or after he spoke, TSMC ($TSM ) released its September revenue figures: up 54.6% year over year, at $16.1 billion for the month. Capacity is still fully loaded, orders keep piling up, and cash on the books keeps growing.

On one side are the hard numbers on capital spending; on the other are those getting ready to catch the liquidity. Capital spending keeps climbing, while the money ready to step in is already waiting at the door. This snapshot makes it pretty clear where this cycle stands right now.