Hook
In 2010, someone traded 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas.
Today, those 10,000 coins are worth about $850 million.
This isn’t a story about luck. It’s an evolutionary history of surviving 17 years, five bull and bear market cycles, and three near-total crashes.
The next thread will tell the whole story$BTC From zero to now
Birth (2008–2010)
2008.10.31: Satoshi Nakamoto publishes the white paper.
2009.01.03: The genesis block is mined, with the front-page headline from The Times embedded in it: "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks."
This isn’t an Easter egg; it’s a manifesto.
In October 2009, the first exchange rate emerged: 1 USD ≈ 1,309 BTC, based on electricity costs.
Price: 0.0008.
Pizza and the first heartbeat (2010–2011)
2010.05.22, Laszlo spent 10,000 $BTC on two pizza vouchers, worth about $41. Price per coin ≈0.004.
In July, it rose tenfold, from 0.008 to 0.08, in five days—the first time anyone realized this thing could move.
2011.02, first reached parity with the U.S. dollar: 1.
That June, it surged to 31.9, then crashed to 2.
The first bubble: +9300%, then -94%. The script was written.#BTC 
Halving mechanism goes live (2012)
2012.11.28, first halving: block reward 50 → 25 BTC.
Price ≈12.
Note: A halving doesn't create buying demand; it just reduces selling pressure. 90% of people get this distinction wrong.
Cyprus and China (2013)
Banking crisis + capital controls + an influx of Chinese buyers.
13 → 1,150, nearly 100x in a year.
In December, a risk warning from China's central bank sent it down to ≈65, a 95% drop.
Mt. Gox rose to prominence that year, then went bankrupt the next, losing 850,000 coins and nearly killing the whole industry.
Lesson ①: The infrastructure collapsed, but the coin survived.
The second halving and ICO mania (2016–2017)
2016.07.09, halving: 25→12.5, price ≈650.
It took off after six months of moving sideways.
2017.12.17, 19,783. Up over 1,300% for the year.
The day CME/CBOE futures launched was pretty much the top.
2018.12, 3,122, -84%.
Lesson ②: Futures and leverage arrived. Volatility doesn't disappear; it just gets more brutal.
Institutional entry (2020–2021)
2020.03.12, Black Thursday: 3,850, as markets around the world crashed together.
2020.05.11, halving: 12.5→6.25.
MicroStrategy and Tesla started buying; El Salvador made it legal tender in 2021.
2021.11.10, 69,044.
2022: Terra/Luna, 3AC, Celsius, and FTX collapsed in succession; 15,479, -77%.
After FTX, the industry's credibility hit zero for the second time.
It's back again.#BTC☀️
A day of transformation: 2024.01.10
The U.S. SEC approved spot BTC ETFs.
Before this day: you had to manage your own private keys; it was an alternative asset.
After this day: a ticker in your brokerage account becomes an asset allocation.
The demand side is shifting from “retail sentiment” to “a macro asset sensitive to interest rates.”
So in 2026, it will move with Treasury yields and nonfarm payrolls—don't be surprised; that's the price of maturity.
Fourth cycle (2024–2025)
2024.04.20, halving: 6.25→3.125.
After Trump's 2024.11 election win, it broke 99k; year-end ≈108k.
2025.10.05–06, all-time high: 126,198.
Over $19 billion in liquidations in a single day, followed by a sharp rebound.
534 days from halving to peak.
The second cycle lasted 526 days; the third, 548 days.
The timing is almost eerily precise.
The framework of a five-cycle pattern
Halving → 6–12 months sideways → 12–18 months of major gains → peak → 77%–95% crash → base-building → next cycle
Gains: +9300% → +2940% → +541% → +94% (diminishing)
Drawdowns: -87% → -84% → -77% → -47%~50% (narrowing)
Bottoms: 2 → 152 → 3,122 → 15,479 → 58,000 (rising)
The larger the market cap, the lower the percentage upside—that's math, not waning conviction.
But the absolute dollar gains are still growing.
Who's buying in each cycle
Geeks → retail investors + Chinese exchanges → global retail investors + ICOs → hedge funds + corporate treasuries → ETFs / sovereign wealth funds / public companies
Every cycle needs a new category of capital to enter before it can break above the previous high.
Last cycle, it was ETFs.
Who's next? There is no answer yet. That's the biggest unknown.
A few misconceptions
“Bitcoin surges every year” — over 17 years, there have been only four major up years (2013/2017/2020/2024); the rest were sideways or saw prices cut in half. The experience of holding depends enormously on when you bought.
“Halving means the price will rise” — after the 2024 halving, it drifted for nearly a year and a half.
“Uptober always wins” — October has historically been positive about 80% of the time, but the sample is only 13–15 years. And the last breakdown happened exactly one year ago today (it peaked on 2025-10-06). With a small sample, seasonality is a narrative, not a law.
Looking at today (2026.10.06)
126,198 ← ATH (one year ago today)
↓ -52%
58,000 ← This cycle's low (2026.07)
↑ +48%
85,500 ← Now, 32% below ATH, YTD about +10%
Neither a bottom nor a top—it's a validation zone.
Three things to watch: Can ETF flows turn from outflows to inflows? Have interest rates really peaked? Can the overhead supply zone at 88k–90k be absorbed?
The next known variable$BTC
In order of importance:
1️⃣ The Fed's policy path (in 2026.09, it raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%)
2️⃣ Daily spot ETF flows (the only real-time visible measure of institutional demand)
3️⃣ 10-year Treasury yield (above 5% = pressure on risk assets)
4️⃣ U.S. crypto legislation (the CLARITY Act is stalled in the Senate)
5️⃣ The fifth halving in 2028 will cut the reward to 1.5625 BTC, reducing new daily supply from 450 coins to 225—the next supply shock written into the code
If you remember just three things
1. It survived, and each time it came back, it was bigger. But that doesn't mean it will necessarily happen again—the fact that it survived in the past is no guarantee of future survival.
2. Returns are concentrated in an extremely short period. Most of the gains happen in just a few quarters; the rest is a long, grueling wait. Miss the key weeks, and your long-term returns are cut in half.
3. It's changing from an “anti-system experiment” into an “asset within the system.” Safer and more accessible, but perhaps a little less unique than it once was. That's maturity—and a kind of compromise.
Data compiled from multiple sources; methodologies vary slightly (ATH has 12; the above is a summary of historical information and does not constitute investment advice.#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
