How is the current 10/10 backdrop different from last year?
The biggest difference right now is that the total open futures positions are still much lower than last year's peak. Positions are indeed starting to rise again, but volume remains low—there’s no sign of people everywhere going long in a frenzy.
Money flows also haven’t shown signs of broad-based excitement:
1️⃣ ETFs haven’t taken off: $BTC this week is at -$458M, which can’t compare to two weeks last year when inflows reached $6B. ETH is even worse, with a streak of 7 consecutive bearish sessions.
2️⃣ Stablecoins have nearly stalled around the $317B range for about a month, suggesting no strong new inflow of capital.
3️⃣ Spot week volume has dropped from roughly $130–50B to $131.7B; perp volume has fallen as well from $699B to $603B. Last year, it was rising continuously: spot at times hit $400B, and perp volume surpassed $1T.
Last year, the market built up a lot of leverage thanks to FOMO sentiment as BTC kept breaking new highs. Then US–China tariff measures, USDe losing its peg, and a pricing issue at Binance triggered a domino wave of liquidations.
So far, we haven’t seen speculation levels as intense as before last year’s crash, but Q4 ahead still holds plenty of hurdles the market must face.
The biggest difference right now is that the total open futures positions are still much lower than last year's peak. Positions are indeed starting to rise again, but volume remains low—there’s no sign of people everywhere going long in a frenzy.
Money flows also haven’t shown signs of broad-based excitement:
1️⃣ ETFs haven’t taken off: $BTC this week is at -$458M, which can’t compare to two weeks last year when inflows reached $6B. ETH is even worse, with a streak of 7 consecutive bearish sessions.
2️⃣ Stablecoins have nearly stalled around the $317B range for about a month, suggesting no strong new inflow of capital.
3️⃣ Spot week volume has dropped from roughly $130–50B to $131.7B; perp volume has fallen as well from $699B to $603B. Last year, it was rising continuously: spot at times hit $400B, and perp volume surpassed $1T.
Last year, the market built up a lot of leverage thanks to FOMO sentiment as BTC kept breaking new highs. Then US–China tariff measures, USDe losing its peg, and a pricing issue at Binance triggered a domino wave of liquidations.
So far, we haven’t seen speculation levels as intense as before last year’s crash, but Q4 ahead still holds plenty of hurdles the market must face.