Tonight we'll discuss $BTC and altcoins. Right now, $BTC is still struggling around $82,000 to $83,000. Where will $BTC go next? Okay, let's analyze. On the 🐂 bullish catalyst side, we have a few catalysts, including:
1. Fed hold (prob. ~82%): If hot data doesn't confirm and the Fed stays quiet, yield pressure could ease—that's what The Block calls a relief in pressure for BTC.
2. Corporates keep buying: Robinhood added $25M in BTC to its balance sheet today, and 30-day inflows are still at $4.9B (although most of that is from existing holders).
3. Technical signal: The price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, and the 50-day MA (~$82.8K) is still holding. That means if it reclaims $83K, it could push toward resistance at $85.2K to $87.4K—that's the zone where your short needs to keep its stop in check.
Short-squeeze fuel: Funding rates on many exchanges are capped at positive levels (0.01%) = lots of people have opened longs since yesterday. If the price moves back up, those crowded long positions could lift it quickly.
On the 🐻 bearish side, there are these catalysts:
1. Geopolitics + oil: BTC broke below $83K as oil hit $101+ amid reports of plans for an attack on Iran. High energy prices = rising yields = risk-on assets get caught in the fallout.
2. Hawkish Fed: Fed funds are currently at 3.75%, the probability of a hike is ~18% (up), and the minutes say most officials still expect another increase before the end of the year. The 10-year yield is already near 5.34%—its highest in ~25 years.
3. Actual ETF outflows: $485M flowed out on Oct. 7, the largest amount since June, wiping out October's inflows. This is a sharp reversal from the $2.39B that poured in. Government selling overhang: The US government moved $470M worth of seized assets to a Coinbase wallet—fueling speculation about a sale.
Looking at the $tripletree and $BTCDOM charts, I lean toward a bearish move or a healthy correction first. Demand is in the $70,000–$75,000 area, where institutions bought and accumulated BTC, making it difficult for $Btc to fall below that range. Altcoins are also likely to turn even more bearish, so for now it's better to avoid using leverage.
#FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause
1. Fed hold (prob. ~82%): If hot data doesn't confirm and the Fed stays quiet, yield pressure could ease—that's what The Block calls a relief in pressure for BTC.
2. Corporates keep buying: Robinhood added $25M in BTC to its balance sheet today, and 30-day inflows are still at $4.9B (although most of that is from existing holders).
3. Technical signal: The price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, and the 50-day MA (~$82.8K) is still holding. That means if it reclaims $83K, it could push toward resistance at $85.2K to $87.4K—that's the zone where your short needs to keep its stop in check.
Short-squeeze fuel: Funding rates on many exchanges are capped at positive levels (0.01%) = lots of people have opened longs since yesterday. If the price moves back up, those crowded long positions could lift it quickly.
On the 🐻 bearish side, there are these catalysts:
1. Geopolitics + oil: BTC broke below $83K as oil hit $101+ amid reports of plans for an attack on Iran. High energy prices = rising yields = risk-on assets get caught in the fallout.
2. Hawkish Fed: Fed funds are currently at 3.75%, the probability of a hike is ~18% (up), and the minutes say most officials still expect another increase before the end of the year. The 10-year yield is already near 5.34%—its highest in ~25 years.
3. Actual ETF outflows: $485M flowed out on Oct. 7, the largest amount since June, wiping out October's inflows. This is a sharp reversal from the $2.39B that poured in. Government selling overhang: The US government moved $470M worth of seized assets to a Coinbase wallet—fueling speculation about a sale.
Looking at the $tripletree and $BTCDOM charts, I lean toward a bearish move or a healthy correction first. Demand is in the $70,000–$75,000 area, where institutions bought and accumulated BTC, making it difficult for $Btc to fall below that range. Altcoins are also likely to turn even more bearish, so for now it's better to avoid using leverage.
#FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause