Xingran Evening Gold 4-Hour Market Analysis — October 9
The Fed’s September meeting minutes showed that most officials believe further policy tightening will still be needed before the end of the year. Fed Governor Waller recently said, “Further rate hikes are still needed, but not consecutive hikes.” CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October is only 17%–21%, while the probability of a hike in December is as high as 70%–85%. The US Dollar Index has held above 102.24, an 18-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.277%, setting a new high since 2007.
The White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up military options for striking Iran. Such action could even be taken before the midterm elections. This has supported oil prices, while safe-haven sentiment provides potential support for gold.
Analysts at Saxo Bank noted that gold’s price action reflects an ongoing tug-of-war in the market: macro and trend traders are selling gold as financing costs rise, while some investors are turning to gold as a hedge against debt and fiscal risks. FXTM analysts warned that if gold remains below 4100, the next target could be 4000.
After falling from a high of 4300, gold bottomed at 4066 and then rebounded. It is currently priced at 4122. The rebound from the lows has continued amid volatility, but recovery momentum remains limited, and the broader bearish trend has yet to reverse.
Resistance: 4121; strong resistance: 4143; support: 4103; strong support: 4066
Strategy Reference
Entry: Enter short positions on a rebound into the 4128–4133 range
Stop-loss: Above 4143
Targets: First target 4103; second target 4066
Summary
The Fed’s hawkish minutes, the dollar holding near 102, and Treasury yields at 5.3% are the key sources of downward pressure. 4103 is a key short-term support level; a break below it could accelerate a decline toward 4066. A rebound into 4128–4133 that meets resistance presents an opportunity to sell at a higher level. Although geopolitical escalation remains a risk, it is unlikely to change the weak short-term trend. Use strict stop-losses. $XAU #币安推出BinanceIntelligence
The Fed’s September meeting minutes showed that most officials believe further policy tightening will still be needed before the end of the year. Fed Governor Waller recently said, “Further rate hikes are still needed, but not consecutive hikes.” CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October is only 17%–21%, while the probability of a hike in December is as high as 70%–85%. The US Dollar Index has held above 102.24, an 18-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.277%, setting a new high since 2007.
The White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up military options for striking Iran. Such action could even be taken before the midterm elections. This has supported oil prices, while safe-haven sentiment provides potential support for gold.
Analysts at Saxo Bank noted that gold’s price action reflects an ongoing tug-of-war in the market: macro and trend traders are selling gold as financing costs rise, while some investors are turning to gold as a hedge against debt and fiscal risks. FXTM analysts warned that if gold remains below 4100, the next target could be 4000.
After falling from a high of 4300, gold bottomed at 4066 and then rebounded. It is currently priced at 4122. The rebound from the lows has continued amid volatility, but recovery momentum remains limited, and the broader bearish trend has yet to reverse.
Resistance: 4121; strong resistance: 4143; support: 4103; strong support: 4066
Strategy Reference
Entry: Enter short positions on a rebound into the 4128–4133 range
Stop-loss: Above 4143
Targets: First target 4103; second target 4066
Summary
The Fed’s hawkish minutes, the dollar holding near 102, and Treasury yields at 5.3% are the key sources of downward pressure. 4103 is a key short-term support level; a break below it could accelerate a decline toward 4066. A rebound into 4128–4133 that meets resistance presents an opportunity to sell at a higher level. Although geopolitical escalation remains a risk, it is unlikely to change the weak short-term trend. Use strict stop-losses. $XAU #币安推出BinanceIntelligence