🚨 I'm Expecting More $BTC Drop From Here — Here's My $BTC Analysis
Derivatives are still giving me a bearish signal. BTC is around $82.6K, below the 1H MA5 at $82.86K, MA10 at $82.85K and MA30 at $83.29K. 1H buy volume is around 1.5K vs 2.1K sell volume, while large 1H flow is -192 BTC and 1D large flow is -1,640 BTC.
Then look at CVD. Futures CVD is falling and spot CVD is also weak, so I'm not seeing the strong spot buying I'd want before calling this a reversal. Futures orderbook delta is -160.9 while spot is only +40.1.
The liquidation heatmaps make the downside more interesting. Across 24H, 48H and 1W, there is meaningful liquidity around $81K-$80K and another major area near $79K.
But here's the part I find most important: yesterday BTC dropped from around $86.5K to ~$83K while yesterday's bad macro was already hitting. Today the macro is actually worse. Brent is above $104 (4%+ up), WTI around $92, the US 10Y is around 5.34% and DXY is around 102.4.
Yet BTC is still holding around $82.5K. To me, that means today's additional bearish pressure may not be fully priced in yet.
Still, bearish data doesn't mean straight dump. BTC can pump first, liquidate shorts and then drop. So I'd prefer waiting for a 1H confirmation, or even better, wait for US market open and watch the first 1H candle.
I opened a small $BNB short around $140 with 20x, but that's my own risk and I can afford it. Don't follow me blindly. The data is bearish, but manage your risk.
Derivatives are still giving me a bearish signal. BTC is around $82.6K, below the 1H MA5 at $82.86K, MA10 at $82.85K and MA30 at $83.29K. 1H buy volume is around 1.5K vs 2.1K sell volume, while large 1H flow is -192 BTC and 1D large flow is -1,640 BTC.
Then look at CVD. Futures CVD is falling and spot CVD is also weak, so I'm not seeing the strong spot buying I'd want before calling this a reversal. Futures orderbook delta is -160.9 while spot is only +40.1.
The liquidation heatmaps make the downside more interesting. Across 24H, 48H and 1W, there is meaningful liquidity around $81K-$80K and another major area near $79K.
But here's the part I find most important: yesterday BTC dropped from around $86.5K to ~$83K while yesterday's bad macro was already hitting. Today the macro is actually worse. Brent is above $104 (4%+ up), WTI around $92, the US 10Y is around 5.34% and DXY is around 102.4.
Yet BTC is still holding around $82.5K. To me, that means today's additional bearish pressure may not be fully priced in yet.
Still, bearish data doesn't mean straight dump. BTC can pump first, liquidate shorts and then drop. So I'd prefer waiting for a 1H confirmation, or even better, wait for US market open and watch the first 1H candle.
I opened a small $BNB short around $140 with 20x, but that's my own risk and I can afford it. Don't follow me blindly. The data is bearish, but manage your risk.