Bitcoin has hit the $87,000 wall for the third time and been knocked back again—down about 1.2%, to around $85,600. $BTC
I went back over the charts, and what’s worth pondering isn’t the number “three,” but how each attempt has looked different. FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich notes that Bitcoin has been making “higher lows” since early last week, while resistance has remained almost flat at $87,000. Higher lows running into a horizontal ceiling create a converging triangle: volatility gets squeezed as the pattern nears its end, amplifying any breakout or breakdown.
Why is it getting stuck here in particular? I think it’s a combination of two forces. First, positioning: around $87,000 is the weighted cost-basis zone for buyers who chased the rally over the past month or so. When the price returns to that level, some sell to break even and exit. That selling pressure comes from actual holders, not just a psychological price barrier. Second, opportunity cost: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.32%, its highest level since 2002. When risk-free assets offer yields above 5%, holding an asset that generates no cash flow becomes more expensive. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record high—the money hasn’t left the market; it’s just taking a different route.
That’s also why I’m cautious about calling $87,000 a “key level”: the level is an outcome, not a cause. What determines whether Bitcoin can hold above it is who’s buying—and at this price, there needs to be enough spot demand to absorb the selling pressure. Total crypto market cap has also fallen back to around $2.93 trillion, below the $2.95 trillion level FxPro is watching—the entire market is sitting beneath the same ceiling.
I’m watching three things next: whether net inflows into spot ETFs turn positive for three consecutive days, whether support around $85,400–$84,500 holds, and whether the 10-year yield keeps pushing higher. The triangle is nearing its apex, so the market should reveal its direction soon.
Do you think this is a buildup ahead of a fourth attempt, or is $87,000 the top for this cycle?
#BitcoinRejectedAt87000ForTheThirdTime
I went back over the charts, and what’s worth pondering isn’t the number “three,” but how each attempt has looked different. FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich notes that Bitcoin has been making “higher lows” since early last week, while resistance has remained almost flat at $87,000. Higher lows running into a horizontal ceiling create a converging triangle: volatility gets squeezed as the pattern nears its end, amplifying any breakout or breakdown.
Why is it getting stuck here in particular? I think it’s a combination of two forces. First, positioning: around $87,000 is the weighted cost-basis zone for buyers who chased the rally over the past month or so. When the price returns to that level, some sell to break even and exit. That selling pressure comes from actual holders, not just a psychological price barrier. Second, opportunity cost: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.32%, its highest level since 2002. When risk-free assets offer yields above 5%, holding an asset that generates no cash flow becomes more expensive. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record high—the money hasn’t left the market; it’s just taking a different route.
That’s also why I’m cautious about calling $87,000 a “key level”: the level is an outcome, not a cause. What determines whether Bitcoin can hold above it is who’s buying—and at this price, there needs to be enough spot demand to absorb the selling pressure. Total crypto market cap has also fallen back to around $2.93 trillion, below the $2.95 trillion level FxPro is watching—the entire market is sitting beneath the same ceiling.
I’m watching three things next: whether net inflows into spot ETFs turn positive for three consecutive days, whether support around $85,400–$84,500 holds, and whether the 10-year yield keeps pushing higher. The triangle is nearing its apex, so the market should reveal its direction soon.
Do you think this is a buildup ahead of a fourth attempt, or is $87,000 the top for this cycle?
#BitcoinRejectedAt87000ForTheThirdTime