Bitcoin (BTC) slid to around $82,800 in Asian trading on Thursday, falling below the $83,000 level that FxPro identified as a trigger for a short-term sell-off. Geopolitical risks appear to be fueling a broader sell-off in risk assets, with international oil prices rising above $102 a barrel amid heightened concerns about possible U.S. strikes on Iran.
Key points
Bitcoin fell about 1.6% in Asian trading on Thursday, slipping just below $82,800.
Brent crude rose above $102 a barrel after reports that the White House is considering options for strikes on Iran.
FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich said that if Bitcoin breaks below $83,000, it could slide relatively quickly to $80,000.
Bitcoin breaks below the bottom of its short-term range
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell 1.6% during Thursday’s Asian morning session, dropping below $82,800. This was the lower boundary of the price range it had traded in for the past two weeks, and it slipped back below the $83,000 support level, which had first given way the previous day.
Major altcoins also fell. XRP (XRP) plunged about 4%, extending its losses to around $1.42, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 3% to about $2,570. Dogecoin (DOGE) also dropped 3%, slipping below $0.09 (9 cents).
Oil prices drove up selling pressure.
Brent crude surged more than 2% to above $102 a barrel following a report the previous day that “the White House asked the Pentagon to consider military options against Iran before next month’s midterm elections.” The spike in oil prices pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to around 5.3%, bringing it close to its highest level since 2002. Alongside Wall Street’s retreat from record highs, this cooled risk appetite across Asian markets.
Minutes released the same day from the Federal Reserve showed that many officials considered another rate hike this year “likely to be appropriate,” following a 0.25-percentage-point increase in September. This added to concerns about a hawkish stance and further weighed on investor sentiment.
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FxPro’s “$80,000 scenario”
On Tuesday this week, when Bitcoin was still trading above $85,000, FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that “a break below $84,000 would mean a victory for the bears.” He forecast that if Bitcoin decisively breaks below its recent low near $83,000, signs of a trend reversal would become clearer, and the price could slide relatively quickly to $80,000.
The decline also coincided with a wave of forced liquidations among leveraged traders. Liquidations across the crypto market totaled about $550 million the previous day, with roughly $480 million coming from long positions, according to CoinGlass data. Bitcoin’s daily losses over the past two consecutive days also came as oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields were rising.
However, not all analysts see this as a decisive shift into a downtrend. ViaBTC Chief Analyst **Jeff Ko** said in a comment earlier this week that Bitcoin had ended the third quarter up about 40%, adding that “if the $82,000–$83,000 range holds as support, this pullback can still be viewed as a constructive ‘sideways correction.’”
Bitcoin remains highly volatile
Bitcoin has traded in a range for the past two weeks, with its upside capped near $87,000. It has failed to break above that level three times since September 23, and was turned back by selling pressure again on Monday this week. As recently as Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading around $86,600.
Even so, Bitcoin remains about a third below its all-time high of $126,000, recorded on October 6 last year. And despite the rally that began around $64,000 in early August this year, long-term holders still have ground to make up.
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