Post
安然Alpha
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Bullish$BTC This drop to 83K—don’t just watch the candlesticks; there’s a lot more happening outside the market
BTC dipped to around 82,700 at its lowest today, sliding all the way down from 86,600. It’s down more than 2% over 24 hours.
This isn’t just the crypto market acting up on its own.
🌍 First, the bigger picture
Recent Iran-related attacks have pushed oil prices higher again, with Brent briefly climbing above $100. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has moved back up to around 5.3%.
Rising oil prices, rising yields, and a stronger dollar are all weighing on risk assets. BTC’s drop from 86K is broadly in line with this macro trend.
Then the crypto market added another blow of its own.
💥 More than $400 million in long positions were liquidated over the past dozen or so hours.
That explains why the price fell so smoothly—this wasn’t gradual selling; highly leveraged longs were forced out all the way down. Wintermute is now watching the area around 82,500. If that level doesn’t hold, the pressure below could increase significantly. CoinDesk
And right then, wallets belonging to the US government moved again.
🏛️ Wallets linked to the US government transferred more than $100 million worth of BTC and BNB, with some BTC going to Coinbase Prime.
As soon as the market sees “government + Coinbase,” people start imagining a sell-off. But for now, we can only confirm the transfers, not that the assets have been sold. CoinDesk
Now, the ETFs.
💰 October 5: -$89.8 million
💰 October 6: +$118.8 million
💰 October 7, reported so far: around -$66.9 million
The flows are choppy—not a one-way exit.
More interestingly, in late September, US spot BTC ETFs had just made up for this year’s net outflows, which had once reached as much as $5.8 billion, and returned to net inflows. Farside Investors
📊 Now let’s look at the futures positioning.
Binance BTC:
OI: around 95,800 BTC
Longs among regular accounts: 62.8%
Whale positions long: 61.8%
Funding rate: -0.00099%
This combination has caught my attention.
The price is falling, more and more traders are buying the dip, yet the funding rate is still negative.
That suggests the market isn’t in a euphoric “everyone is going all-in long” state. Instead, plenty of traders are still willing to hold short positions.
And just last week, Citi raised its 12-month BTC target from $82,000 to $113,000, citing the return of ETF inflows and improved activity across the broader crypto market.
BTC dipped to around 82,700 at its lowest today, sliding all the way down from 86,600. It’s down more than 2% over 24 hours.
This isn’t just the crypto market acting up on its own.
🌍 First, the bigger picture
Recent Iran-related attacks have pushed oil prices higher again, with Brent briefly climbing above $100. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has moved back up to around 5.3%.
Rising oil prices, rising yields, and a stronger dollar are all weighing on risk assets. BTC’s drop from 86K is broadly in line with this macro trend.
Then the crypto market added another blow of its own.
💥 More than $400 million in long positions were liquidated over the past dozen or so hours.
That explains why the price fell so smoothly—this wasn’t gradual selling; highly leveraged longs were forced out all the way down. Wintermute is now watching the area around 82,500. If that level doesn’t hold, the pressure below could increase significantly. CoinDesk
And right then, wallets belonging to the US government moved again.
🏛️ Wallets linked to the US government transferred more than $100 million worth of BTC and BNB, with some BTC going to Coinbase Prime.
As soon as the market sees “government + Coinbase,” people start imagining a sell-off. But for now, we can only confirm the transfers, not that the assets have been sold. CoinDesk
Now, the ETFs.
💰 October 5: -$89.8 million
💰 October 6: +$118.8 million
💰 October 7, reported so far: around -$66.9 million
The flows are choppy—not a one-way exit.
More interestingly, in late September, US spot BTC ETFs had just made up for this year’s net outflows, which had once reached as much as $5.8 billion, and returned to net inflows. Farside Investors
📊 Now let’s look at the futures positioning.
Binance BTC:
OI: around 95,800 BTC
Longs among regular accounts: 62.8%
Whale positions long: 61.8%
Funding rate: -0.00099%
This combination has caught my attention.
The price is falling, more and more traders are buying the dip, yet the funding rate is still negative.
That suggests the market isn’t in a euphoric “everyone is going all-in long” state. Instead, plenty of traders are still willing to hold short positions.
And just last week, Citi raised its 12-month BTC target from $82,000 to $113,000, citing the return of ETF inflows and improved activity across the broader crypto market.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.