$FIL has remained resilient above 1. More importantly, on October 15, the six-year linear release schedules for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation come to an end.
Over the past year, these two sources contributed approximately 66.7 million newly issued FIL, while block rewards added about 21.7 million, bringing total annual issuance to around 88.4 million.
Once the releases end, the first source drops to zero, leaving only block rewards. Annual issuance falls to around 22 million, a decrease of approximately 75%. By the project’s own figures, this is the largest supply contraction since mainnet launch.
The circulating supply won’t suddenly shrink by three-quarters that day. Coins already issued will remain in circulation; what changes is how many new coins enter circulation each year going forward.
Turning down the tap on selling pressure doesn’t mean an immediate shortage. Net supply will ultimately depend on burns and coins locked up as collateral. If usage picks up, new issuance could be offset further. If demand stays unchanged, reduced supply simply removes one reason for prices to fall—it isn’t a switch that makes them rise.
So the period around October 15 is a window to watch. Sentiment and holder cost basis may provide short-term support, but what really needs to follow is demand from paid storage and on-chain settlements.$FIL
Over the past year, these two sources contributed approximately 66.7 million newly issued FIL, while block rewards added about 21.7 million, bringing total annual issuance to around 88.4 million.
Once the releases end, the first source drops to zero, leaving only block rewards. Annual issuance falls to around 22 million, a decrease of approximately 75%. By the project’s own figures, this is the largest supply contraction since mainnet launch.
The circulating supply won’t suddenly shrink by three-quarters that day. Coins already issued will remain in circulation; what changes is how many new coins enter circulation each year going forward.
Turning down the tap on selling pressure doesn’t mean an immediate shortage. Net supply will ultimately depend on burns and coins locked up as collateral. If usage picks up, new issuance could be offset further. If demand stays unchanged, reduced supply simply removes one reason for prices to fall—it isn’t a switch that makes them rise.
So the period around October 15 is a window to watch. Sentiment and holder cost basis may provide short-term support, but what really needs to follow is demand from paid storage and on-chain settlements.$FIL