According to Jin10, market analyst Jeremy Boulton said carry trades are becoming increasingly fragile as rising market volatility is widening exchange-rate swings. Adverse currency moves may be enough to offset gains from favorable interest-rate differentials and could even cause larger losses. Some of the most popular carry-trade currencies have already seen sharp unfavorable moves: since the outlook for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September became clear, the Mexican peso has at one point fallen as much as 9%, the South African rand has dropped more than 5%, and the Hungarian forint has fallen more than 7%. Japan's measures to support the yen pushed it slightly higher, while a selloff in French government bonds hurt market confidence, weighed on the euro, and lifted the Swiss franc. This has further increased losses for carry trades that depend on stable market conditions. If equities continue to pull back, carry trades could face a collapse. As investors take profits ahead of year-end and amid uncertainty over the U.S. election in November, stocks and other risk assets may come under further pressure.
