5.01% on the day the Fed raised rates. And by October 7, already 5.28%
These are 10-year Treasuries. On Tuesday, under #fomcwatch, I promised to check whether anyone mentioned them in the minutes.
They did. “A few participants”—a handful—cited a stronger economy, expectations that more borrowing would happen because of AI, and geopolitics.
“Many,” meanwhile, wrote that financial conditions remain accommodative despite the rise in longer-term yields. In other words, many of them don’t see this rise as a cause for concern.
“Most” expect one more rate hike by the end of the year. The market sees it too, but not in October: the odds of a hike at the October 28 meeting are 18.4%, down from 37.9% a week ago. For December 9, the odds of a 4.00–4.25 range are already 69.9%.
Basically, the minutes read like “not now, in December.” I’ll keep the tag going right up to the decision. Follow along if you’re keeping track.
$BTC
I still don’t have it, and my BNB and stablecoins are still sitting in Simple Earn Flexible, just like before.
#ФРС #TreasuriesRising #Ставки
These are 10-year Treasuries. On Tuesday, under #fomcwatch, I promised to check whether anyone mentioned them in the minutes.
They did. “A few participants”—a handful—cited a stronger economy, expectations that more borrowing would happen because of AI, and geopolitics.
“Many,” meanwhile, wrote that financial conditions remain accommodative despite the rise in longer-term yields. In other words, many of them don’t see this rise as a cause for concern.
“Most” expect one more rate hike by the end of the year. The market sees it too, but not in October: the odds of a hike at the October 28 meeting are 18.4%, down from 37.9% a week ago. For December 9, the odds of a 4.00–4.25 range are already 69.9%.
Basically, the minutes read like “not now, in December.” I’ll keep the tag going right up to the decision. Follow along if you’re keeping track.
$BTC
I still don’t have it, and my BNB and stablecoins are still sitting in Simple Earn Flexible, just like before.
#ФРС #TreasuriesRising #Ставки