The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting are out—and they’re really not very reassuring for the market.
Everyone at the meeting supported a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.75–4%. And most believe another hike by the end of the year would be appropriate.
But there’s an important detail here that’s easy to miss in the headlines.
The minutes don’t say the next hike will necessarily happen in October. On the contrary, after weaker labor market data, traders significantly lowered their expectations for an October move.
The market now puts the probability of a December hike at around 70%, while the odds for October are much lower.
$BTC fell below $84,000 against this backdrop, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%.
I like moments like these for one reason: the minutes show what officials were thinking three weeks ago, while the price shows what the market thinks about it today.
So, for Bitcoin, what matters right now isn’t the word “hike” itself. What matters is whether inflation, employment, and Treasury yields change enough for the Fed to actually go further.
If you want to understand macro—not through the headlines, but through what really moves the prices of risky assets—subscribe to @MoonMan567
Everyone at the meeting supported a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.75–4%. And most believe another hike by the end of the year would be appropriate.
But there’s an important detail here that’s easy to miss in the headlines.
The minutes don’t say the next hike will necessarily happen in October. On the contrary, after weaker labor market data, traders significantly lowered their expectations for an October move.
The market now puts the probability of a December hike at around 70%, while the odds for October are much lower.
$BTC fell below $84,000 against this backdrop, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%.
I like moments like these for one reason: the minutes show what officials were thinking three weeks ago, while the price shows what the market thinks about it today.
So, for Bitcoin, what matters right now isn’t the word “hike” itself. What matters is whether inflation, employment, and Treasury yields change enough for the Fed to actually go further.
If you want to understand macro—not through the headlines, but through what really moves the prices of risky assets—subscribe to @MoonMan567