The AIOT alert stands out: it’s down 18.3% in the past 24 hours, and the decline is continuing—it’s not just the first candle of a sudden crash. It’s still down 1.2% over 5 minutes and 5.3% over 1 hour, with volume at 11.2 times the average. This isn’t a slow drift lower on shrinking volume; it’s a sharp, high-volume sell-off, suggesting selling pressure is still being released and there are no buyers stepping in.

Looking at the price action, this move is a continuation in the same direction as the “late-stage acceleration” 16.6 hours ago. In other words, the downtrend isn’t over; it’s still extending lower. Open interest (OI) is down just 0.7%, and that figure is key: this isn’t a decline driven by shorts closing that could lead to a rebound. Positions are still open, and longs haven’t cut their positions on a large scale, which means there’s still room for further liquidations.

The most concerning part is sentiment. Social channels are quiet: 0 public mentions in the past 4 hours, 0 KOLs speaking up, and a BSQ of just 10. This kind of silence isn’t a sign of a bottom—it means nobody wants to buy the dip while prices are falling, and nobody wants to call a trade. It’s a classic liquidity vacuum. The broad sell-off alongside MINA and GRIFFAIN shows this is sector-wide, not an AIOT-specific issue, so don’t expect AIOT to hold up on its own.

My stance is clear: don’t touch it at the current price, and don’t try to catch a falling knife. If you want to play a bounce, wait for two signals: first, a 1h candle that shows a bottom forming, with a long lower wick and strong volume; second, some scattered social discussion starting up and a clear drop in OI (meaning the bulls have finished cutting their positions). If you do get involved, keep the position small and put your stop 2% below the previous low. Aim only for a 5–8% bounce, then get out—don’t call it a trend. As for short positions, chasing a short now isn’t great value; entering after an 18% drop leaves you vulnerable to getting burned by a bounce.

In this market, keep your hands off the button.

Quick stats: Current price — | 24h -18.3% | Volume ratio 11.2 | OI -0.7% | 5m -1.2% | 1h -5.3%

That’s all I have to say. Let someone else try to catch the falling knife.

—— 13:25 Market notes