The narrative around this story is loud; the numbers are what we can verify.
Oil moved first: Brent is currently at $101.19, up 1.4% on the day, with an intraday high of $101.28. Bonds followed: the 30-year Treasury yield is sitting at its highest level since 2002. Risk assets moved the other way: BTC is around $82,717, down 1.75% over 24 hours.
There’s really only one layer of firsthand information: Axios reported that days ago, the Pentagon instructed CENTCOM to prepare to resume large-scale military operations against Iran. The directive set no timeline, and Trump hasn’t made a decision. So what we can say for sure right now is that “preparations are underway”—not that “a strike will happen.”
A decision lies between those two things. The first wave of reaction to this kind of news is usually driven by emotion; facts only come into play in the second wave.
I’m watching three things: whether long-term Treasury yields keep climbing, whether oil can hold near its recent highs, and the actual volume of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (Kpler counted 7 vessels on Tuesday, the lowest since July 23). The numbers tell you before the headlines do whether escalation is real or just posturing.
Oil moved first: Brent is currently at $101.19, up 1.4% on the day, with an intraday high of $101.28. Bonds followed: the 30-year Treasury yield is sitting at its highest level since 2002. Risk assets moved the other way: BTC is around $82,717, down 1.75% over 24 hours.
There’s really only one layer of firsthand information: Axios reported that days ago, the Pentagon instructed CENTCOM to prepare to resume large-scale military operations against Iran. The directive set no timeline, and Trump hasn’t made a decision. So what we can say for sure right now is that “preparations are underway”—not that “a strike will happen.”
A decision lies between those two things. The first wave of reaction to this kind of news is usually driven by emotion; facts only come into play in the second wave.
I’m watching three things: whether long-term Treasury yields keep climbing, whether oil can hold near its recent highs, and the actual volume of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (Kpler counted 7 vessels on Tuesday, the lowest since July 23). The numbers tell you before the headlines do whether escalation is real or just posturing.