The daily chart has plunged into the $4,000–$4,160 range. Do the bears really think they can break straight through?

Gold is now sitting right on the support at the bottom of this daily-chart range. This isn’t some cliff that appeared out of nowhere—it’s a defense line that has been tested repeatedly before. More importantly, a key factor outside the gold market is shifting: the U.S. Dollar Index, which has been weighing on gold, is turning lower.

On one side, strong support at the bottom of the daily range is holding gold up; on the other, a softer dollar is providing a tailwind. Rushing to sell here—or even flipping short—means taking on the worst risk-reward. As long as support holds, I absolutely won’t turn bearish on gold here.

#XAU
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