The FOMC minutes released in the early hours had me shaking my head: all 19 officials unanimously backed a September rate hike, and most thought another one would be needed before year-end. The reason was pretty straightforward—inflation just won’t come down, and the AI infrastructure boom is actually driving demand higher. Now that’s an eye-opener.

$BTC couldn’t hold up and fell below 84,000 along with oil prices. After an oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude neared $100, and the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.7%, its highest level since 2002. It’s a rough time to be a risk asset.

But on the other hand, the SEC just approved a rule change, and applications have been filed for 3x leveraged ETFs covering gold, silver, $BTC , and $ETH . Leveraged products showing up first in a bear market—it’s a familiar script.

On-chain activity is heating up, though: Solana-based Orca and Loopscale have merged to form Formation, and $SUI just hit 40 million TPS, setting a world record. Macro is taking a beating while infrastructure races ahead. I usually take that kind of divergence as a signal to start positioning.

Don’t rush to catch a falling knife in the short term. Let’s see where oil prices and the Fed land first.

NFA DYOR

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