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北辰1688
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Bullish$ETH Today’s candle was brutal: ETFs saw $200M in outflows in a single day, and Tom Lee says “we’re almost done buying”
ETH dropped to a low of 2,535 today, down around 4% over 24 hours.
I don’t think we can just look at the chart this time—several things happening elsewhere have collided.
🌍 First, the broader macro picture.
Brent crude is back above $100, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.28%, and the dollar is strengthening too.
When all of these come together, highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH tend to take a hit.
💸 Then there are the ETFs.
October 1: -$55.4 million
October 2: -$37.4 million
October 5: -$50.8 million
October 6: -$201.9 million
Over four trading days, spot ETH ETFs saw roughly $346 million in outflows.
Especially on October 6, when $200 million flowed out in a single day.
🐋 And just then, one of the market’s biggest ETH buyers had something to say.
BitMine now holds around 6.016 million ETH, about 4.9% of ETH’s total supply.
Tom Lee put it plainly yesterday at Token2049:
Once they reach 5%, they’ll stop buying.
They’re now roughly 100,000 ETH short of that target.
I think this matters more than the usual “institutional accumulation” story.
That’s because BitMine has been one of the market’s most consistent big buyers lately.
If they really stop at 5%, that means one long-term buyer will be gone.
That said, the ETH they hold isn’t just sitting idle.
📌 Around 5.067 million ETH is currently staked. According to the company’s disclosures, that’s about 84% of its total ETH holdings.
🧱 Development on the technical side hasn’t stopped, either.
Glamsterdam was officially activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6.
Key priorities include ePBS, Block-level Access Lists, and further changes to the gas pricing mechanism. The main goal is still to increase L1 throughput. There’s no mainnet launch date yet.
The positioning in the futures market looks even more contradictory.
📊 ETH:
OI: around 2.4 million ETH
Long positions among retail accounts: 77.2%
Long positions among large holders: 61.4%
Funding rate: -0.0033%
In the latest few 4H periods, the taker buy/sell ratio was mostly below 1
It’s a strange picture.
More than 70% of accounts are long.
But the price keeps getting hammered, aggressive selling is still weighing on it, and the funding rate is even negative.
Put simply:
Lots of people want to buy the dip.
But those actually putting serious money in aren’t as confident as it might seem
ETH dropped to a low of 2,535 today, down around 4% over 24 hours.
I don’t think we can just look at the chart this time—several things happening elsewhere have collided.
🌍 First, the broader macro picture.
Brent crude is back above $100, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.28%, and the dollar is strengthening too.
When all of these come together, highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH tend to take a hit.
💸 Then there are the ETFs.
October 1: -$55.4 million
October 2: -$37.4 million
October 5: -$50.8 million
October 6: -$201.9 million
Over four trading days, spot ETH ETFs saw roughly $346 million in outflows.
Especially on October 6, when $200 million flowed out in a single day.
🐋 And just then, one of the market’s biggest ETH buyers had something to say.
BitMine now holds around 6.016 million ETH, about 4.9% of ETH’s total supply.
Tom Lee put it plainly yesterday at Token2049:
Once they reach 5%, they’ll stop buying.
They’re now roughly 100,000 ETH short of that target.
I think this matters more than the usual “institutional accumulation” story.
That’s because BitMine has been one of the market’s most consistent big buyers lately.
If they really stop at 5%, that means one long-term buyer will be gone.
That said, the ETH they hold isn’t just sitting idle.
📌 Around 5.067 million ETH is currently staked. According to the company’s disclosures, that’s about 84% of its total ETH holdings.
🧱 Development on the technical side hasn’t stopped, either.
Glamsterdam was officially activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6.
Key priorities include ePBS, Block-level Access Lists, and further changes to the gas pricing mechanism. The main goal is still to increase L1 throughput. There’s no mainnet launch date yet.
The positioning in the futures market looks even more contradictory.
📊 ETH:
OI: around 2.4 million ETH
Long positions among retail accounts: 77.2%
Long positions among large holders: 61.4%
Funding rate: -0.0033%
In the latest few 4H periods, the taker buy/sell ratio was mostly below 1
It’s a strange picture.
More than 70% of accounts are long.
But the price keeps getting hammered, aggressive selling is still weighing on it, and the funding rate is even negative.
Put simply:
Lots of people want to buy the dip.
But those actually putting serious money in aren’t as confident as it might seem
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.