#比特币跌破8.4万美元
Bitcoin has barely moved over the past two weeks. Traders watching the charts have their eyes on the $84,000 mark, but what’s really holding the market back may not be on the charts..
🔄 进群聊仓位
Bitcoin was trading at $83,641 on Wednesday, with major coins weakening in tandem. But zoom out, and prices have barely changed over the past two weeks.. The market sees this as a consolidation within a stepwise climb. Whether Bitcoin can push up to $87,000 depends not on the chart pattern, but on whether money flows back into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs..
ETFs were still the main story in September, with net inflows of about $2.6 billion for the month. The week ending September 25 alone contributed around $2.39 billion, while daily inflows briefly came close to $999 million on September 21.. But demand cooled markedly after that: inflows fell to just $241 million last week and have totaled only $28 million so far this week..
The money hasn’t left; it has simply paused.. The ETF buying that drove September’s rally has stepped aside, and prices have stalled.. One market observer says the threshold to watch is net inflows of more than $300 million a day for several consecutive trading days—only then would institutional demand truly be back.. A data executive takes the opposite view, arguing that large daily inflows matter more than small amounts accumulated over a longer period. Of the 190 trading days so far this year, 93 saw net outflows, or 48%, yet ETFs have still recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows for the year. That’s why weekly and monthly data are more worth watching than daily figures..
More noteworthy is the shift in the relative positioning of capital between major coins.. The daily Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio has fallen below the Ichimoku cloud, a signal usually read as weakening momentum. If the breakdown holds, Ethereum’s uptrend relative to Bitcoin may already be over.. Immediate support is near the September 4 low of 0.03059. A further break below that level would provide clearer bearish confirmation.. When this line moves, the allocation of funds between the two tends to shift with it..
The macro backdrop hasn’t helped either. Oil prices rose after tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000.. So the current picture is this: dip-buying and dollar-cost averaging are still slowly building, and many are targeting prices above $100,000. But without a surge in ETF inflows, the sideways trading is likely to drag on.. The key isn’t a particular support level, but the day ETF net inflows climb back above $300 million and stay there for several days in a row.. Until then, this consolidation is simply a waiting game..
Bitcoin has barely moved over the past two weeks. Traders watching the charts have their eyes on the $84,000 mark, but what’s really holding the market back may not be on the charts..
🔄 进群聊仓位
Bitcoin was trading at $83,641 on Wednesday, with major coins weakening in tandem. But zoom out, and prices have barely changed over the past two weeks.. The market sees this as a consolidation within a stepwise climb. Whether Bitcoin can push up to $87,000 depends not on the chart pattern, but on whether money flows back into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs..
ETFs were still the main story in September, with net inflows of about $2.6 billion for the month. The week ending September 25 alone contributed around $2.39 billion, while daily inflows briefly came close to $999 million on September 21.. But demand cooled markedly after that: inflows fell to just $241 million last week and have totaled only $28 million so far this week..
The money hasn’t left; it has simply paused.. The ETF buying that drove September’s rally has stepped aside, and prices have stalled.. One market observer says the threshold to watch is net inflows of more than $300 million a day for several consecutive trading days—only then would institutional demand truly be back.. A data executive takes the opposite view, arguing that large daily inflows matter more than small amounts accumulated over a longer period. Of the 190 trading days so far this year, 93 saw net outflows, or 48%, yet ETFs have still recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows for the year. That’s why weekly and monthly data are more worth watching than daily figures..
More noteworthy is the shift in the relative positioning of capital between major coins.. The daily Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio has fallen below the Ichimoku cloud, a signal usually read as weakening momentum. If the breakdown holds, Ethereum’s uptrend relative to Bitcoin may already be over.. Immediate support is near the September 4 low of 0.03059. A further break below that level would provide clearer bearish confirmation.. When this line moves, the allocation of funds between the two tends to shift with it..
The macro backdrop hasn’t helped either. Oil prices rose after tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000.. So the current picture is this: dip-buying and dollar-cost averaging are still slowly building, and many are targeting prices above $100,000. But without a surge in ETF inflows, the sideways trading is likely to drag on.. The key isn’t a particular support level, but the day ETF net inflows climb back above $300 million and stay there for several days in a row.. Until then, this consolidation is simply a waiting game..