The upcoming October 18 unlock will release approximately 28.7 million more $TRUMP (about 2.9% of the total supply and approximately 3.8% of the current market cap). But taking a broader view, this is just one in a series of monthly token vesting events that have been taking place since the start of the year.
Here are a few practical perspectives on this unlock that traders should keep in mind:
1. The “Front-Run” Mindset (Sell the Rumor)
Crypto markets often tend to sell off before bad news actually hits. Some of the intense selling over the past few weeks has likely come from traders proactively exiting their positions or opening short positions ahead of the October 18 unlock.
However, historical data from previous monthly unlocks of $TRUMP (an average decline of around 5.8% in the 10 days after an unlock) suggests that actual selling pressure on the unlock date itself is sometimes less severe than the initial panic might suggest. In fact, a sharp Short Squeeze may even occur if too many traders have piled into short positions.
2. Tokenomics & Insider Flows
Around 80% of the total supply of $TRUMP belongs to Insiders/Creators, with tokens vesting gradually over 24 months. For coins with such a high concentration of ownership, the price does not move solely according to natural retail demand; it is also influenced by the intentions of Market Makers (MMs) and the development team:
If MMs want to sell the newly unlocked tokens at a good price, they could easily trigger a fake recovery rally (a bull trap) to encourage retail buyers to buy the dip before selling more.
If market demand has already been exhausted, letting the price drift down so they can accumulate again at extremely low levels is a very plausible scenario.
(This information is for market analysis purposes only and is not investment advice.)
Here are a few practical perspectives on this unlock that traders should keep in mind:
1. The “Front-Run” Mindset (Sell the Rumor)
Crypto markets often tend to sell off before bad news actually hits. Some of the intense selling over the past few weeks has likely come from traders proactively exiting their positions or opening short positions ahead of the October 18 unlock.
However, historical data from previous monthly unlocks of $TRUMP (an average decline of around 5.8% in the 10 days after an unlock) suggests that actual selling pressure on the unlock date itself is sometimes less severe than the initial panic might suggest. In fact, a sharp Short Squeeze may even occur if too many traders have piled into short positions.
2. Tokenomics & Insider Flows
Around 80% of the total supply of $TRUMP belongs to Insiders/Creators, with tokens vesting gradually over 24 months. For coins with such a high concentration of ownership, the price does not move solely according to natural retail demand; it is also influenced by the intentions of Market Makers (MMs) and the development team:
If MMs want to sell the newly unlocked tokens at a good price, they could easily trigger a fake recovery rally (a bull trap) to encourage retail buyers to buy the dip before selling more.
If market demand has already been exhausted, letting the price drift down so they can accumulate again at extremely low levels is a very plausible scenario.
(This information is for market analysis purposes only and is not investment advice.)