According to the latest macro analysis report from Nomura, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently made an unexpected shift in its monetary policy stance from “neutral” to “calibrated tightening.” The bank also raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026/27 to 7.1% and its inflation forecast to 5.2%, and expects inflation to rise further to 5.6% next year.
This policy shift signals that central banks in emerging markets are facing mounting pressure from imported inflation and currency depreciation. Although Nomura expects the RBI may pause after raising rates by 25 basis points in December, its upward revision to the inflation forecast has dispelled excessive market optimism about an early easing of liquidity in emerging markets.
With major global economies maintaining a restrictive stance, defensive rate hikes in emerging economies will push the global risk-free yield floor higher still. Spot gold rose 0.74% intraday to above $4,140 per ounce, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid pressure on fiat currencies’ purchasing power and the shadow of high inflation.
For crypto markets, continued tightening of the global liquidity tap means it will take time for fresh capital to flow in. Under the macroeconomic pressure of persistently high real interest rates, risk assets—including $BTC —may remain range-bound in the short term, with liquidity constrained as they form a bottom.
#MacroEconomics #InterestRates #Inflation
This policy shift signals that central banks in emerging markets are facing mounting pressure from imported inflation and currency depreciation. Although Nomura expects the RBI may pause after raising rates by 25 basis points in December, its upward revision to the inflation forecast has dispelled excessive market optimism about an early easing of liquidity in emerging markets.
With major global economies maintaining a restrictive stance, defensive rate hikes in emerging economies will push the global risk-free yield floor higher still. Spot gold rose 0.74% intraday to above $4,140 per ounce, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid pressure on fiat currencies’ purchasing power and the shadow of high inflation.
For crypto markets, continued tightening of the global liquidity tap means it will take time for fresh capital to flow in. Under the macroeconomic pressure of persistently high real interest rates, risk assets—including $BTC —may remain range-bound in the short term, with liquidity constrained as they form a bottom.
#MacroEconomics #InterestRates #Inflation