@听澜321 I agree that deleveraging seems to have been the main catalyst. Now, rather than trying to anticipate the bottom, what matters is seeing whether volume subsides and the market stabilizes before gaining a new direction.
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听澜321
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I’ve finished reading the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting.
To put it simply, it boils down to two words: wait and see 😂
Here’s a quick translation: Most officials think they’ll need to raise rates once more this year, but they’ll hold steady in October. They’re not in a hurry to keep hiking back-to-back and want to look at more data. It’s like they’re still holding the “gun,” but aren’t pulling the trigger just yet 😂
Why is that? Because the “number two” and “number three” bigwigs (Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams) had already signaled that there was no rush to hike and that they had time to assess the situation. The market bought it, too: the odds of an October rate hike fell from around 70% to around 20%～
Some people might ask: Is today’s crypto-market drop related to these “meeting minutes”?
I think it’s somewhat related, but I’d say they were only an “accomplice” 😂
I think the immediate trigger was the surge in U.S. Treasury yields～
The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.36% intraday, while the 30-year yield hit 5.73%—both at their highest levels in 20 years. When bond yields rise, money flows out of high-risk assets and into bonds. Assets like $BTC , which are especially sensitive to liquidity, take the first hit～
The most brutal blow came from “leveraged liquidations”～
Over the past 24 hours, around $550 million to $690 million worth of positions were liquidated in the crypto market, more than 92% of them long positions.
So who was the “biggest victim” in this wave? That would definitely be $ETH .
ETH liquidations totaled $250 million, the most of any coin, with 94% of those being long positions. BTC liquidations totaled $185 million, and longs also accounted for 94%. The share of long positions liquidated in XRP and $SOL was over 96%. What does that tell us? That the market was too crowded with bulls, all crammed onto one side of the boat 😂
Personally, I think:
This “no rush” stance isn’t dovish—it’s about managing the pace. Inflation is still hovering above 3%, and AI investment is pushing up costs, so the Fed can’t really let up. Hiking rates consecutively could wreck the economy, so they’re spacing out the moves and waiting for more data before they “act”～
Also, macro factors were just the backdrop for this drop; leverage was the main cause.
But liquidations aren’t necessarily a bad thing. They’ve cleared out weak hands and flushed out leverage, which could actually set the stage for the next wave of investors to start fresh～
So don’t rush to buy the dip just yet—wait for a signal.
Wait for trading volume to shrink, prices to stop making new lows, and the long/short ratio to return to normal～
What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments 🥳
#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息 #比特币跌破8.4万美元
To put it simply, it boils down to two words: wait and see 😂
Here’s a quick translation: Most officials think they’ll need to raise rates once more this year, but they’ll hold steady in October. They’re not in a hurry to keep hiking back-to-back and want to look at more data. It’s like they’re still holding the “gun,” but aren’t pulling the trigger just yet 😂
Why is that? Because the “number two” and “number three” bigwigs (Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams) had already signaled that there was no rush to hike and that they had time to assess the situation. The market bought it, too: the odds of an October rate hike fell from around 70% to around 20%～
Some people might ask: Is today’s crypto-market drop related to these “meeting minutes”?
I think it’s somewhat related, but I’d say they were only an “accomplice” 😂
I think the immediate trigger was the surge in U.S. Treasury yields～
The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.36% intraday, while the 30-year yield hit 5.73%—both at their highest levels in 20 years. When bond yields rise, money flows out of high-risk assets and into bonds. Assets like $BTC , which are especially sensitive to liquidity, take the first hit～
The most brutal blow came from “leveraged liquidations”～
Over the past 24 hours, around $550 million to $690 million worth of positions were liquidated in the crypto market, more than 92% of them long positions.
So who was the “biggest victim” in this wave? That would definitely be $ETH .
ETH liquidations totaled $250 million, the most of any coin, with 94% of those being long positions. BTC liquidations totaled $185 million, and longs also accounted for 94%. The share of long positions liquidated in XRP and $SOL was over 96%. What does that tell us? That the market was too crowded with bulls, all crammed onto one side of the boat 😂
Personally, I think:
This “no rush” stance isn’t dovish—it’s about managing the pace. Inflation is still hovering above 3%, and AI investment is pushing up costs, so the Fed can’t really let up. Hiking rates consecutively could wreck the economy, so they’re spacing out the moves and waiting for more data before they “act”～
Also, macro factors were just the backdrop for this drop; leverage was the main cause.
But liquidations aren’t necessarily a bad thing. They’ve cleared out weak hands and flushed out leverage, which could actually set the stage for the next wave of investors to start fresh～
So don’t rush to buy the dip just yet—wait for a signal.
Wait for trading volume to shrink, prices to stop making new lows, and the long/short ratio to return to normal～
What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments 🥳
#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息 #比特币跌破8.4万美元
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