In short, just two words: wait a little longer 😂

To put it briefly: most officials think rates should be raised once more this year, but they won’t make any changes in October for now. They’re in no rush to keep raising them; they want to see more data first. So the “gun” is still at the ready, but they haven’t fired yet 😂

Why? Because the “second” and “third” most influential people (Vice Chair Jefferson and Williams of the New York Fed) had already indicated that there was no need to rush into a hike and that there was time to assess the situation. The market agrees: the probability of an October rate hike has fallen from around 70% to 20%～

Some might ask: is today’s crypto market decline related to these “meeting minutes”?

I think there’s a connection, but it’s just a “sidekick” 😂

In my view, the immediate trigger was the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields～

During the day, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries exceeded 5.36%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.73%—the highest levels in 20 years. When bond yields rise, money flows out of high-risk assets and into the bond market. $BTC, an asset especially sensitive to liquidity, takes the first hit～

The most painful hit is “leveraged position liquidation”～

Over the past 24 hours, approximately $550–690 million worth of positions were forcibly closed in the crypto market, with more than 92% of them being longs.

And who was the “biggest victim” of this wave? Of course, $ETH

ETH liquidations totaled $250 million—more than any other coin—with 94% of them being longs. BTC liquidations reached $185 million, and longs also accounted for 94%. The share of long liquidations for XRP and $SOL exceeded 96%. What does this tell us? There were too many longs—everyone was crowded onto the same side of the boat 😂

In my view:

This “not rushing” isn’t a dovish stance; it’s about managing the pace. Inflation is still above 3%, and investment in AI is pushing spending higher. The Fed can’t truly loosen its grip. Raising rates repeatedly could send the economy crashing, so it’s spacing out hikes and waiting for new data before “acting” again～

Moreover, in this wave of declines, the macroeconomy is just the backdrop; the main culprit is leverage.

But liquidations aren’t necessarily a bad thing: weak positions have been flushed out and leverage has been cleared, which actually creates an opportunity for those entering the next wave with a lighter load～

So don’t rush to buy the dip—wait for signals.

Wait for trading volume to fall, the price to stop making new lows, and the long-short ratio to return to normal～

ETHUSDT

Perp

2,583.97

-3.75%

BTCUSDT

Perp

83,348.3

-2.13%

SOLUSDT

Perp

116.51

-2.85%