One person first shouted, “Move the assets now!” while another said, “Don’t rush...” The difference between them isn’t a technical judgment—it’s how they understand the timeline..
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Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake warned over the past couple of days that, in the worst case, ECDSA elliptic-curve signatures could be cracked not in years, but within months. He advised large holders to move their assets to new addresses that have never sent a transaction. Today, Vitalik responded in a post, saying he doesn’t recommend that users rush to move their funds to new wallets, but that they should take seriously the risks AI’s acceleration of mathematical computation poses to cryptography..
The risk list has changed this time.. Most people have long assumed that elliptic curves could be broken, but hash algorithms and lattice-based cryptography would remain secure.. The new core risk areas Vitalik singled out are precisely ML-DSA, fully homomorphic encryption (FHE), and lattice-based cryptography itself.. His view is that advances in AI mathematics over the next two years could seriously weaken the practical security of lattice-based cryptography.. In other words, even the layer originally seen as a fallback for the post-quantum era may not hold up..
So his answer isn’t to run, but to change the structure.. Prioritize hash-based schemes over lattice-based ones, be highly cautious about parameter sizes in any lattice-based scheme, don’t put encrypted notes from privacy protocols on-chain—instead, transmit them off-chain—and try to handle multisig confirmations off-chain as well.. That way, if ECDSA really does run into trouble sooner than expected, multisig can at least degrade smoothly to a single-signature mode, with the party responsible for collecting signatures controlling the funds, rather than leaving them open for anyone to take..
From a capital-flow perspective, this kind of security narrative is easiest to amplify when the market is at its weakest.. It won’t change prices immediately, but it can change where money is held.. Funds may move from hot wallets and centralized custody toward self-custody, hardware wallets, multisig, and even privacy- and security-focused assets.. The real rotation starts with structure; the market usually reacts last..
But keep the opposing possibility in mind, too.. If AI fails to deliver on the threat to lattice-based cryptography within two years, this bout of bunker mode will have been nothing more than a wave of sentiment, and the money will eventually return to whatever is easiest.. What matters isn’t who shouts the loudest, but whether the underlying infrastructure—wallet standards, multisig schemes, and address management—actually changes.. The next signal to watch is whether mainstream wallets and custodians make off-chain confirmations and unused addresses the default..
🔄 进群看机构动作
Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake warned over the past couple of days that, in the worst case, ECDSA elliptic-curve signatures could be cracked not in years, but within months. He advised large holders to move their assets to new addresses that have never sent a transaction. Today, Vitalik responded in a post, saying he doesn’t recommend that users rush to move their funds to new wallets, but that they should take seriously the risks AI’s acceleration of mathematical computation poses to cryptography..
The risk list has changed this time.. Most people have long assumed that elliptic curves could be broken, but hash algorithms and lattice-based cryptography would remain secure.. The new core risk areas Vitalik singled out are precisely ML-DSA, fully homomorphic encryption (FHE), and lattice-based cryptography itself.. His view is that advances in AI mathematics over the next two years could seriously weaken the practical security of lattice-based cryptography.. In other words, even the layer originally seen as a fallback for the post-quantum era may not hold up..
So his answer isn’t to run, but to change the structure.. Prioritize hash-based schemes over lattice-based ones, be highly cautious about parameter sizes in any lattice-based scheme, don’t put encrypted notes from privacy protocols on-chain—instead, transmit them off-chain—and try to handle multisig confirmations off-chain as well.. That way, if ECDSA really does run into trouble sooner than expected, multisig can at least degrade smoothly to a single-signature mode, with the party responsible for collecting signatures controlling the funds, rather than leaving them open for anyone to take..
From a capital-flow perspective, this kind of security narrative is easiest to amplify when the market is at its weakest.. It won’t change prices immediately, but it can change where money is held.. Funds may move from hot wallets and centralized custody toward self-custody, hardware wallets, multisig, and even privacy- and security-focused assets.. The real rotation starts with structure; the market usually reacts last..
But keep the opposing possibility in mind, too.. If AI fails to deliver on the threat to lattice-based cryptography within two years, this bout of bunker mode will have been nothing more than a wave of sentiment, and the money will eventually return to whatever is easiest.. What matters isn’t who shouts the loudest, but whether the underlying infrastructure—wallet standards, multisig schemes, and address management—actually changes.. The next signal to watch is whether mainstream wallets and custodians make off-chain confirmations and unused addresses the default..