Samsung’s operating profit is up eightfold year over year, yet its share price is still about 25% below its June high. It didn’t open strongly—the market clearly didn’t see the results as a buying opportunity.
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Two figures: third-quarter operating profit was about 107.4 trillion won, 1% below the average estimate of 108.7 trillion won; revenue of 195 trillion won also fell short of expectations. This AI infrastructure boom is like a gold rush, and Samsung sells the shovels—memory chips and HBM are the shovels, and their prices are rising. Counterpoint Research raised its forecast for the quarter-over-quarter increase in third-quarter DRAM contract prices from 5%–10% to 10%–20%.

If, after the results came out, the share price recoups half of its 25% discount, that would mean the market is buying the results themselves—and this thesis no longer holds.
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