U.S. stocks Wednesday close: S&P 500 7801.77, down 0.22%; Dow 51179.87, down 341 points; Nasdaq 27538.69, down 0.22%; Russell down 1.3%. Tuesday’s records didn’t hold. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.364% intraday, its highest since 2002. The $39 billion auction stopped at 5.3%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77; primary dealers took just 2.5%. By afternoon, the 10-year yield had fallen to 5.284%, and the 30-year to 5.669%. Minutes: all members agreed to a 25-bp hike in September, to 3.75–4.00%, but were divided on the rationale. Most thought another hike before year-end would be appropriate; several felt current rates were not restrictive, or only mildly so. Reuters/CME put the odds of an October hike at 17.2%, down from 37.6% a week earlier. Brent settled at $100.20, down 0.38%. In Osaka night trading, December Nikkei futures were at 69,790, down 570; the cash market doesn’t open until 9:00, so don’t treat the futures price as the opening level. Samsung’s Q3 operating-profit guidance was 107.4 trillion won, nearly nine times the year-ago figure and above the 106.1 trillion expected. BTC was 83,111 on CoinGecko, down 2.8% over 24 hours, with a range of 82,823–85,602. The ETF figure for 10/7 is still a dash; don’t treat it as settled.

After the long-end yield retreated from its high, will Tokyo’s open track overnight futures more closely, or the memory-chip guidance?

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