During the Token 2049 period, I saw many people saying, “The market always falls during conferences.” But there’s no curse that makes markets fall at every conference. It’s just that these kinds of declines haven’t given everyone a convincing explanation.
As mentioned in this week’s macro outlook, there are no major macroeconomic data releases this week, so the macro narrative naturally shifts back to energy, the bond market, and rate-hike expectations.
The declines in #Bitcoin and US stocks over the past two days have been driven more by insufficient liquidity as the macro environment tightens, with increased volatility from the pullback adding to the pressure. The key factor is the drag from high bond yields—and this isn’t limited to US Treasuries; long-term rates are rising globally.
Looking at #BTC and US stocks, the core narratives remain intact and the growth drivers are still there. It’s just that, in the short term, pressure from long-term interest rates is weakening liquidity and increasing volatility. The way out is simple: either Brent falls back below $95, or the odds of a December rate hike drop below 50%.
The two key factors reinforce each other, but the main question is whether Brent can provide a breakthrough first. However, I’m still fairly pessimistic about US-Iran relations over the next few days. On November 3, the market may have to endure more “cold-shoulder treatment” from the US and Iran! #美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息
As mentioned in this week’s macro outlook, there are no major macroeconomic data releases this week, so the macro narrative naturally shifts back to energy, the bond market, and rate-hike expectations.
The declines in #Bitcoin and US stocks over the past two days have been driven more by insufficient liquidity as the macro environment tightens, with increased volatility from the pullback adding to the pressure. The key factor is the drag from high bond yields—and this isn’t limited to US Treasuries; long-term rates are rising globally.
Looking at #BTC and US stocks, the core narratives remain intact and the growth drivers are still there. It’s just that, in the short term, pressure from long-term interest rates is weakening liquidity and increasing volatility. The way out is simple: either Brent falls back below $95, or the odds of a December rate hike drop below 50%.
The two key factors reinforce each other, but the main question is whether Brent can provide a breakthrough first. However, I’m still fairly pessimistic about US-Iran relations over the next few days. On November 3, the market may have to endure more “cold-shoulder treatment” from the US and Iran! #美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息