#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息 Tonight’s Fed minutes: An October rate pause is all but a done deal, but long-term bonds are the real wild card
Bottom line: The market has already treated no rate hike in October as a foregone conclusion. CME data show traders putting the odds of holding steady at 78%.
Why so confident? Because the Fed’s three top officials have all struck a dovish tone. Vice Chair Jefferson, New York Fed President Williams, and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman—all permanent voters—have delivered the same message: “There’s no need to rush into another move.” September payrolls came in at just 29,000, far below expectations, further bolstering the case for “wait and see.”
So tonight’s minutes, due in the early hours, will most likely explain why the Fed hiked in September but plans to pause for a while. The market has already priced in that script, so a major surprise seems unlikely.
But don’t mix things up: The 10-year Treasury yield surged intraday to 5.35%, its highest since 2002. Tonight’s auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes is the real test. The minutes address whether the Fed will hike; the auction shows whether buyers are still willing to step in.
In short: Short-term traders should watch the minutes, but don’t expect a big surprise. The real volatility lies in the long-bond auction—that’s tonight’s hidden landmine.$BTC $ETH $SOXL