The FOMC minutes are coming soon, so keep an eye on the position in $XAU first.
Gold has been pulled back and forth between safe-haven demand and real interest rates over the past couple of days. If the minutes include the phrase "higher for longer," $XAU will likely face short-term pressure as expectations for holding costs rise. Conversely, if any committee members start discussing a timeline for rate cuts, $XAU will move straight up.
The logic for $BTC and $ETH is a little different. If the minutes are hawkish, risk assets will come under pressure overall, and $BTC will weaken along with U.S. stocks. $ETH has a stronger correlation and higher beta. But if the minutes sound dovish, improving liquidity expectations will give $BTC more upside than $XAU , with $ETH following close behind.
I lean toward the minutes being neutral to slightly hawkish this time, since recent data haven’t been very supportive of rate cuts. $XAU may trade weakly in a short-term range. For $BTC $ETH , wait for the minutes to come out before deciding on a direction—don’t use leverage prematurely.
Volatility will be intense when the data come out, so watch out for slippage.
Gold has been pulled back and forth between safe-haven demand and real interest rates over the past couple of days. If the minutes include the phrase "higher for longer," $XAU will likely face short-term pressure as expectations for holding costs rise. Conversely, if any committee members start discussing a timeline for rate cuts, $XAU will move straight up.
The logic for $BTC and $ETH is a little different. If the minutes are hawkish, risk assets will come under pressure overall, and $BTC will weaken along with U.S. stocks. $ETH has a stronger correlation and higher beta. But if the minutes sound dovish, improving liquidity expectations will give $BTC more upside than $XAU , with $ETH following close behind.
I lean toward the minutes being neutral to slightly hawkish this time, since recent data haven’t been very supportive of rate cuts. $XAU may trade weakly in a short-term range. For $BTC $ETH , wait for the minutes to come out before deciding on a direction—don’t use leverage prematurely.
Volatility will be intense when the data come out, so watch out for slippage.