U.S. stocks pulled back from records on Wednesday, the long end reached highs not seen since 2002 again, and the minutes have not been released yet.
As of 10/8 00:11 JST (around 10/7 11:11 ET, about 4 hours 49 minutes before the close). Reuters 09:43 ET: Dow 51049.07 −0.92%, S&P 7775.04 −0.56%, Nasdaq 27364.73 −0.85%. MarketScreener 10:23 ET: S&P 7773.31 −0.58%; its table showed Dow 50975.82 −1.06%, Nasdaq 27414.06 −0.67%, Russell 2797.83 −1.15%. A range of readings, not to be combined into one point. Tuesday’s close: Dow 51521.04, S&P 7818.95, Nasdaq 27599.79 (AInvest; record day for the S&P/Nasdaq).
10-year yield: CNBC near 5.35% (up nearly 8bp, highest since 2002); 30-year at 5.724%. TE table: 5.31%. Do not conflate them. $39 billion 10-year reopening at 13:00 ET; Saferate trade price still shown as a dash. Yesterday’s $58 billion 3-year auction cleared at 4.932%. Brent: FT 101.56 (10:32 ET), daily range 100.83–102.32, Tuesday settlement 100.58. New York Fed September survey at 11:01 ET: 1-year inflation expectations 3.9% (August 3.6%, highest since May 2023), 3-year 3.3%, 5-year unchanged at 3.0%.
September minutes due at 14:00 ET / 03:00 JST have not been released. The 25bp rate hike to 3.75%–4.00% was unanimously approved; 16 of 18 participants’ dots indicated one more hike this year, with a year-end median federal funds rate of 4.1%. Under the FedWatch measure, the odds of no change in October are around 78–80%—not the same thing as the dot plot.
BTC: GuruFocus 83203 (previous day 85558, about −2.75%); OKX daily low 82753. Farside 10/6 +118.8 (IBIT +122) settled, cumulative 57886; 10/7 still shown as a dash. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), per Bloomberg: continuing to advance Musk’s Terafab; Reuters premarket futures story: +1.3%. TSMC (TWSE: 2330) discussions yielded no new wafer figures.
Levels: S&P 7818.95 / 7774; 10-year 5.31–5.35; Brent 100.58 / 102.32; BTC 82753 / 85558. Next catalysts: the 02:00 auction and 03:00 minutes.
If the 10-year reopening tails, will 5.35 be breached or hold?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #U.S. stocks
Not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
As of 10/8 00:11 JST (around 10/7 11:11 ET, about 4 hours 49 minutes before the close). Reuters 09:43 ET: Dow 51049.07 −0.92%, S&P 7775.04 −0.56%, Nasdaq 27364.73 −0.85%. MarketScreener 10:23 ET: S&P 7773.31 −0.58%; its table showed Dow 50975.82 −1.06%, Nasdaq 27414.06 −0.67%, Russell 2797.83 −1.15%. A range of readings, not to be combined into one point. Tuesday’s close: Dow 51521.04, S&P 7818.95, Nasdaq 27599.79 (AInvest; record day for the S&P/Nasdaq).
10-year yield: CNBC near 5.35% (up nearly 8bp, highest since 2002); 30-year at 5.724%. TE table: 5.31%. Do not conflate them. $39 billion 10-year reopening at 13:00 ET; Saferate trade price still shown as a dash. Yesterday’s $58 billion 3-year auction cleared at 4.932%. Brent: FT 101.56 (10:32 ET), daily range 100.83–102.32, Tuesday settlement 100.58. New York Fed September survey at 11:01 ET: 1-year inflation expectations 3.9% (August 3.6%, highest since May 2023), 3-year 3.3%, 5-year unchanged at 3.0%.
September minutes due at 14:00 ET / 03:00 JST have not been released. The 25bp rate hike to 3.75%–4.00% was unanimously approved; 16 of 18 participants’ dots indicated one more hike this year, with a year-end median federal funds rate of 4.1%. Under the FedWatch measure, the odds of no change in October are around 78–80%—not the same thing as the dot plot.
BTC: GuruFocus 83203 (previous day 85558, about −2.75%); OKX daily low 82753. Farside 10/6 +118.8 (IBIT +122) settled, cumulative 57886; 10/7 still shown as a dash. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), per Bloomberg: continuing to advance Musk’s Terafab; Reuters premarket futures story: +1.3%. TSMC (TWSE: 2330) discussions yielded no new wafer figures.
Levels: S&P 7818.95 / 7774; 10-year 5.31–5.35; Brent 100.58 / 102.32; BTC 82753 / 85558. Next catalysts: the 02:00 auction and 03:00 minutes.
If the 10-year reopening tails, will 5.35 be breached or hold?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #U.S. stocks
Not investment advice. Trading involves risk.