The market has looked eerily familiar these past couple of days, and a lot of people are wondering: Is the bull market still alive, or has the bear arrived?
I used to dismiss the four-year cycle theory too. When I got into crypto in 2017, I thought it was complete nonsense. It’s only in the past few months that I’ve come to understand: bull and bear markets aren’t just talk—they’re forged in the market, through real battles.
BTC plunged from 126,000 to 94,000. Altcoins were cut in half, some even down 80%—the mood had clearly changed. Then came an even stranger scene at the start of the month: BTC was stuck around 110,000, while meme coins doubled or tripled in just two or three days.
We saw this in late 2021. Once the meme-coin frenzy was over, all that remained was ruin. People who warned about the risks were called doomsayers. Now, tens of billions in leveraged positions have been liquidated, wiping out a year’s gains.
The more hype there is, the deeper the risks are buried. We’re now 18 months past this year’s halving, and sentiment has tended to turn at around this point. History doesn’t repeat itself, but its rhythms are similar.
Institutions are providing a floor for BTC, so its downside is limited. Nobody is stepping in to buy altcoins; they’re a scattered mess. The technical picture is even more straightforward: BTC has broken below both its three-year and annual moving averages, and everyone is watching the critical 72,000 level. It’s hard to say what will happen if that support breaks.
On top of that, expectations for rate cuts are fading and liquidity is tightening, so the rally is unlikely to materialize. At least ETFs are still attracting inflows; big-money investors are simply waiting on the sidelines.
Rather than trying to guess whether we’re in a bull or bear market, think about whether you can stay steady through the volatility. Real opportunities don’t come amid all the noise—they quietly show up when nobody’s paying attention.
I’ve seen too many people stumble—not because they didn’t work hard, but because they charged ahead in the dark. There will always be another market. Whether you can seize the opportunity depends on whether you have a light in hand to find your way and manage risk.
I used to dismiss the four-year cycle theory too. When I got into crypto in 2017, I thought it was complete nonsense. It’s only in the past few months that I’ve come to understand: bull and bear markets aren’t just talk—they’re forged in the market, through real battles.
BTC plunged from 126,000 to 94,000. Altcoins were cut in half, some even down 80%—the mood had clearly changed. Then came an even stranger scene at the start of the month: BTC was stuck around 110,000, while meme coins doubled or tripled in just two or three days.
We saw this in late 2021. Once the meme-coin frenzy was over, all that remained was ruin. People who warned about the risks were called doomsayers. Now, tens of billions in leveraged positions have been liquidated, wiping out a year’s gains.
The more hype there is, the deeper the risks are buried. We’re now 18 months past this year’s halving, and sentiment has tended to turn at around this point. History doesn’t repeat itself, but its rhythms are similar.
Institutions are providing a floor for BTC, so its downside is limited. Nobody is stepping in to buy altcoins; they’re a scattered mess. The technical picture is even more straightforward: BTC has broken below both its three-year and annual moving averages, and everyone is watching the critical 72,000 level. It’s hard to say what will happen if that support breaks.
On top of that, expectations for rate cuts are fading and liquidity is tightening, so the rally is unlikely to materialize. At least ETFs are still attracting inflows; big-money investors are simply waiting on the sidelines.
Rather than trying to guess whether we’re in a bull or bear market, think about whether you can stay steady through the volatility. Real opportunities don’t come amid all the noise—they quietly show up when nobody’s paying attention.
I’ve seen too many people stumble—not because they didn’t work hard, but because they charged ahead in the dark. There will always be another market. Whether you can seize the opportunity depends on whether you have a light in hand to find your way and manage risk.