Down 12%, but $UNI 's contract position hasn't shrunk by token count—in a rough calculation, it's actually up 3%.
On Saturday night (10/3), Binance's UNI perpetual positions totaled 28.35 million tokens at a price of 9.05. At noon today, an aggregator site showed $235 million, with the price around 8.00, which works out to about 29.3 million tokens. These figures are from two different points in time, so there may be a 1–2% margin of error, but the direction is clear.
The funding rate has stayed positive all day, around +0.008%—longs are still paying shorts.
After a drop this steep, you'd usually expect a wave of long positions to get washed out and the funding rate to turn negative. Neither has happened. The bulls haven't given up.
Spot tells a different story. The address that bought in September via Flowdesk at an average price of 7.17 (starting with 0xf7AD) deposited its entire position of 654,000 tokens into Coinbase Prime at 6:30 a.m. Beijing time on 10/6, when the price was still around 9.1. A deposit doesn't necessarily mean a sale, but the holder is still up 11%.
On one side, you have someone sitting on a profit who has already moved toward the exit; on the other, leveraged longs who haven't capitulated. I'm leaning bearish on the next move. 7.63 is the low of the big green candle on 9/18; below that is the address's cost basis of 7.17.
I was bearish in Saturday's post too, and the invalidation level I gave then, 9.32, was never reached. This time, I'd consider the call wrong if an hourly candle closes back above 8.60—that would completely erase today's drop.
#UNI #Uniswap
On Saturday night (10/3), Binance's UNI perpetual positions totaled 28.35 million tokens at a price of 9.05. At noon today, an aggregator site showed $235 million, with the price around 8.00, which works out to about 29.3 million tokens. These figures are from two different points in time, so there may be a 1–2% margin of error, but the direction is clear.
The funding rate has stayed positive all day, around +0.008%—longs are still paying shorts.
After a drop this steep, you'd usually expect a wave of long positions to get washed out and the funding rate to turn negative. Neither has happened. The bulls haven't given up.
Spot tells a different story. The address that bought in September via Flowdesk at an average price of 7.17 (starting with 0xf7AD) deposited its entire position of 654,000 tokens into Coinbase Prime at 6:30 a.m. Beijing time on 10/6, when the price was still around 9.1. A deposit doesn't necessarily mean a sale, but the holder is still up 11%.
On one side, you have someone sitting on a profit who has already moved toward the exit; on the other, leveraged longs who haven't capitulated. I'm leaning bearish on the next move. 7.63 is the low of the big green candle on 9/18; below that is the address's cost basis of 7.17.
I was bearish in Saturday's post too, and the invalidation level I gave then, 9.32, was never reached. This time, I'd consider the call wrong if an hourly candle closes back above 8.60—that would completely erase today's drop.
#UNI #Uniswap
