Xingran’s October 7 evening view on the 4-hour gold market
After falling steadily from the high of 4315, the price rebounded to recover before dropping again. The current price is 4120. It has broken below short-term moving-average support, and bearish momentum has been released once more. The broader downtrend remains intact. Resistance is at 4139, with strong resistance at 4158; support is at 4105, with strong support at 4109.
After the Fed’s September rate hike was finalized, officials made a series of hawkish remarks. Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated clearly, “Inflation has regained upward momentum. If we do not continue to act, the Fed’s credibility will be in grave danger.” Fed Vice Chair Jefferson also stressed that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and that policymakers need “more time” to assess the situation. Markets are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate hike in December.
Trump said that the next steps against Iran are “going well,” and disclosed that after the November midterm elections, he might order more forceful strikes. The U.S. military is sending a third aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions offer potential safe-haven support for gold, but have not yet translated into buying momentum.
Resistance: 4139; strong resistance: 4158; support: 4105; strong support: 4109
Trading recommendations
Entry: Enter a short position on a rebound into the 4138–4142 range
Stop loss: Above 4158.43
Targets: First target 4109; second target 4105
Summary
The broader trend is downward; rebounds are just a breather. Hawkish Fed signals, together with strength in both the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, are the main sources of pressure. 4105 is a key short-term support level, and a break below it would accelerate the decline. Although geopolitical tensions carry a risk of escalation, they are unlikely to reverse the weak trend in the short term. A rebound into 4138–4142 that meets resistance offers an opportunity to sell at a higher level; use a strict stop loss. $XAU #币安推出BinanceIntelligence
After falling steadily from the high of 4315, the price rebounded to recover before dropping again. The current price is 4120. It has broken below short-term moving-average support, and bearish momentum has been released once more. The broader downtrend remains intact. Resistance is at 4139, with strong resistance at 4158; support is at 4105, with strong support at 4109.
After the Fed’s September rate hike was finalized, officials made a series of hawkish remarks. Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated clearly, “Inflation has regained upward momentum. If we do not continue to act, the Fed’s credibility will be in grave danger.” Fed Vice Chair Jefferson also stressed that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and that policymakers need “more time” to assess the situation. Markets are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate hike in December.
Trump said that the next steps against Iran are “going well,” and disclosed that after the November midterm elections, he might order more forceful strikes. The U.S. military is sending a third aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions offer potential safe-haven support for gold, but have not yet translated into buying momentum.
Resistance: 4139; strong resistance: 4158; support: 4105; strong support: 4109
Trading recommendations
Entry: Enter a short position on a rebound into the 4138–4142 range
Stop loss: Above 4158.43
Targets: First target 4109; second target 4105
Summary
The broader trend is downward; rebounds are just a breather. Hawkish Fed signals, together with strength in both the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, are the main sources of pressure. 4105 is a key short-term support level, and a break below it would accelerate the decline. Although geopolitical tensions carry a risk of escalation, they are unlikely to reverse the weak trend in the short term. A rebound into 4138–4142 that meets resistance offers an opportunity to sell at a higher level; use a strict stop loss. $XAU #币安推出BinanceIntelligence