【🧮 Risk Arithmetic 10-07】Same market, different leverage: two different species
$BTC Current price: 83,824｜Daily ATR(14) = 1,899, or 2.27% of the current price
In plain English: a normal 2.3% daily swing is routine—it doesn’t take any news.
▬ What leverage really means (using a 4.5% liquidation distance as an example, i.e. 20x)
· 4.5% ÷ 2.27% = 2.0 ATRs — not enough to withstand even one day of normal volatility
· Tested against 5.2 years of 1-hour data (45,822 entry points): randomly opening a 20x long at any time and blindly holding it gives a 10.3% chance of liquidation within 24 hours
· In other words: even if you get the direction right, 1 out of 10 times you’ll still be liquidated that day — whether your call is right or wrong, liquidation happens before your thesis has time to play out
▬ Holding costs (money you lose even if the price doesn’t move)
· Annualized funding rate: -4.9%, settled every 8 hours → going long costs 0.013% per day
· Perpetual/spot basis: -0.042%
· Our own strategy tests (16 coins, 47 trades): fees + slippage cost 0.115R per trade, accounting for 48% of gross profit — costs are certain; direction is uncertain
▬ Positioning
· OI notional: 8.1B, down 0.36% over the past 24 hours
· 12-day range: 82,563–87,220; current price is 27% of the way through the range
▬ The conclusion is simple
Risk 1–2% per trade, and you’re very unlikely to go bust over 200 trades; risk 20% per trade, and you’re bound to. Direction determines how much you make; position size determines whether you’re still in the game.
All of the above is based on public data and our own statistics; this is not investment advice. Make your own decisions and take responsibility for them.
$BTC
$BTC Current price: 83,824｜Daily ATR(14) = 1,899, or 2.27% of the current price
In plain English: a normal 2.3% daily swing is routine—it doesn’t take any news.
▬ What leverage really means (using a 4.5% liquidation distance as an example, i.e. 20x)
· 4.5% ÷ 2.27% = 2.0 ATRs — not enough to withstand even one day of normal volatility
· Tested against 5.2 years of 1-hour data (45,822 entry points): randomly opening a 20x long at any time and blindly holding it gives a 10.3% chance of liquidation within 24 hours
· In other words: even if you get the direction right, 1 out of 10 times you’ll still be liquidated that day — whether your call is right or wrong, liquidation happens before your thesis has time to play out
▬ Holding costs (money you lose even if the price doesn’t move)
· Annualized funding rate: -4.9%, settled every 8 hours → going long costs 0.013% per day
· Perpetual/spot basis: -0.042%
· Our own strategy tests (16 coins, 47 trades): fees + slippage cost 0.115R per trade, accounting for 48% of gross profit — costs are certain; direction is uncertain
▬ Positioning
· OI notional: 8.1B, down 0.36% over the past 24 hours
· 12-day range: 82,563–87,220; current price is 27% of the way through the range
▬ The conclusion is simple
Risk 1–2% per trade, and you’re very unlikely to go bust over 200 trades; risk 20% per trade, and you’re bound to. Direction determines how much you make; position size determines whether you’re still in the game.
All of the above is based on public data and our own statistics; this is not investment advice. Make your own decisions and take responsibility for them.
$BTC