Hello, dear friends!
After the sharp move $RLC , I decided to look not only at the chart, but also at the token’s structure. Over a few days, the price rose from around $0.36 to $1.078, then pulled back to $0.767. This kind of momentum deserves a closer look.
iExec has been around since 2017 and is developing decentralized computing infrastructure. The project is currently focused on confidential computing, Trusted Execution Environments, Confidential DeFi, and RWAs. RLC is used as the ecosystem’s utility token. Its supply is fixed at 86,999,784.987 RLC, with no new issuance or major future unlocks planned.
The project also has a new economic model. iExec introduced Confidential Token, in which RLC is intended to serve as the coordination and value layer of the infrastructure. The team also described a mechanism for converting part of the protocol revenue back into RLC through buybacks.
But this fundamental story does not obviously explain the vertical surge on October 5 in particular.
That day, RLC rose nearly 100%, closing around $0.72 after starting near $0.36. Trading volume increased from less than $1 million the previous day to more than $140 million. However, immediately before the surge, iExec had not published any official news that could obviously explain the move.
This does not prove that the rise was artificial. But given this change in price and volume, it is worth looking at the supply structure and the futures market.
According to Arkham, two large Gnosis Safe Proxy addresses hold around 11.15 million and 7.75 million RLC. Together, that is approximately 18.9 million RLC, or 21.7% of the maximum supply. The ultimate owners of these Safes have not been publicly identified.
However, other large addresses belong to Binance. So the concentration of tokens in a few wallets does not in itself prove that the team or insiders control them. Exchange addresses pool funds from many clients.
Arkham also links a separate address to iExec co-founder Gilles Fedak. It holds around 1 million RLC, or approximately 1.15% of the maximum supply. There is not enough data to link this address to the current pump or to a sale during the move.
Therefore, there are no grounds to speak of manipulation by the iExec team.
The stories of LAB and BANK are interesting here only as examples of market behavior after sharp pumps. In both cases, deep declines followed parabolic growth. But events surrounding these tokens cannot be directly extrapolated to RLC.
RLC did show signs of a strong speculative move: a sharp rise in price and volume, as well as a multiple increase in futures open interest. Against a backdrop of negative funding, this could have amplified the move through short-position closures and liquidations. But this mechanism explains the amplification of the move, not its initial cause.
It is not yet known who the first large buyer was.
Now, let’s look at the chart.
On the 1D chart, the price is around $0.767, AVL is at $0.7414, and Supertrend is at $0.5811. After the pullback, $0.74-$0.77 remains the key zone. Above that, resistance is at $0.822, followed by the $0.997-$1.03 area and the $1.078 high.
On the 4H chart, the price is around $0.768, AVL is $0.7739, Supertrend is $0.6581, and SAR is $1.0391. Losing $0.74 would weaken the structure, while a break below $0.658-$0.614 would be a serious signal that the correction is continuing.
On the 15M chart, the price is around $0.768, AVL is $0.7704, and Supertrend is $0.7034. After the initial surge, volumes declined noticeably. For now, this looks more like stabilization after a pump than a confirmed continuation of the rise.
If $RLC holds $0.74-$0.77 and moves back above $0.822, a retest of $1.03 and $1.078 is possible.
If the price loses $0.74, followed by $0.658-$0.614, the correction could deepen toward $0.53-$0.40. A return to around $0.36 would mean an almost complete retracement to the base of the current move.
What we have now is neither proven manipulation nor a fully confirmed fundamental revaluation. It is an abnormally rapid rise with no obvious initial source of demand.
So right now, three things matter most for RLC: movements by large Gnosis Safe wallets, futures open interest, and the price’s ability to hold $0.74-$0.77.
These are what will help determine whether this surge marked the beginning of a new trend or was another parabolic move after which the market returns to its original base.