This morning’s selloff had nothing to do with the Fed.
Brent crude climbed above $101, the dollar strengthened, and the 10-year Treasury yield returned to 5.31%. The Houthis attacked Saudi airports, and oil tankers came under repeated attack. Oil prices surged, and risk assets took the first hit.
$BTC briefly plunged to 83,840. More than $360 million in long positions were liquidated in 10 minutes, and over 100,000 traders were liquidated across the market in 24 hours. $ETH
Even worse, it fell below 2,600, toward the 2,610 area; ZEC held at 1,323 and proved more resilient than ETH.
The thing is, the minutes haven’t even come out yet, and the market has already fallen.
That actually changes the tone around the minutes due at 2 a.m. tonight. They cover the September 15–16 meeting, when the vote was unanimous, 12–0, to raise rates to 3.75%–4.00%, and 16 officials were still calling for another hike this year. But the 29,000 nonfarm payrolls figure came out only after the meeting, so the minutes are inherently outdated.
And today, two regional Fed presidents came out hawkish first. Schmid said inflation was picking up again, and that the tool to address it was further rate hikes—failing to act would put the Fed’s credibility at risk. Neither of the two has a vote this year, but their comments were clearly setting the stage for the minutes.
CME pricing now: a 79.5% chance of no change in October, and a 68% chance of one rate hike in December.
The market has already fallen this far. If the minutes are still hawkish, a break below 83,000 could send it toward 80,000. If the language is a little softer, there may be room for a recovery.
Brent crude climbed above $101, the dollar strengthened, and the 10-year Treasury yield returned to 5.31%. The Houthis attacked Saudi airports, and oil tankers came under repeated attack. Oil prices surged, and risk assets took the first hit.
$BTC briefly plunged to 83,840. More than $360 million in long positions were liquidated in 10 minutes, and over 100,000 traders were liquidated across the market in 24 hours. $ETH
Even worse, it fell below 2,600, toward the 2,610 area; ZEC held at 1,323 and proved more resilient than ETH.
The thing is, the minutes haven’t even come out yet, and the market has already fallen.
That actually changes the tone around the minutes due at 2 a.m. tonight. They cover the September 15–16 meeting, when the vote was unanimous, 12–0, to raise rates to 3.75%–4.00%, and 16 officials were still calling for another hike this year. But the 29,000 nonfarm payrolls figure came out only after the meeting, so the minutes are inherently outdated.
And today, two regional Fed presidents came out hawkish first. Schmid said inflation was picking up again, and that the tool to address it was further rate hikes—failing to act would put the Fed’s credibility at risk. Neither of the two has a vote this year, but their comments were clearly setting the stage for the minutes.
CME pricing now: a 79.5% chance of no change in October, and a 68% chance of one rate hike in December.
The market has already fallen this far. If the minutes are still hawkish, a break below 83,000 could send it toward 80,000. If the language is a little softer, there may be room for a recovery.