The most important thing about $BTC today is not the size of the drop, but that positions did not exit after support was broken. The full 1-hour candle fell from 85,501 to 84,331; the next hour hit a low of 83,500 and closed at 83,817. Before 17:00, the price was around 83,948, down 2.33% over 24 hours.

Futures open interest is still up 1.14%, the funding rate has fallen to around -0.0055%, and the long/short account ratio is about 1.40. The verifiable facts are that the price fell and positions increased; the market inference is that new shorts and dip-buying longs entered at the same time, rather than this being a clean deleveraging. The 1-hour RSI is around 22.9 and the 4-hour RSI around 28.6. Oversold readings only indicate that the move was too fast; they do not confirm a reversal.

Outcome: The break below 85,250 and the 84,900 target have both been triggered; 86,100 was not triggered. There was no entry plan this morning, so no entry was made. 83,500 is the current line of defense. A reclaim of 84,330 would signal that the decline has stalled; only a move back above 84,900 would suggest a recovery. If 83,500 gives way, continue to defend 82,900. #BTC #日内复盘 #Risk Watch