$VVV I’m leaning bearish and staying on the sidelines this round, with more focus on whether genuine buying support emerges after the decline. My October 3 post discussed the weak recovery in Aerodrome’s on-chain pool; today I’m checking price and volume using the Binance VVVUSDT perpetual contract instead. Quotes and trading conventions differ between the two markets, so the old pool’s key levels shouldn’t be mechanically carried over to the futures chart. But the new downtrend structure now warrants a separate update.
As of 16:50 Beijing time on October 7, the latest Binance contract price was around 26.60 USDT, down 5.10% over the rolling 24 hours, with about 28.13 million USDT in trading volume. The range high was 28.768 and the low was 26.430. On the hourly chart, the price reached a high of 28.768 at 22:00 last night and then pulled back. The complete hourly candle at 10:00 today touched 26.430, with about 2.74 million USDT in trading volume. By contrast, each of the three rebound hours from 13:00 to 15:00 had less than 700,000 USDT in volume. The price has bounced, but volume hasn’t shown that buyers have regained control of the pace.
The four-hour chart also can’t simply be described as “a bottom is in.” The 08:00–12:00 candle closed at 26.700; the 12:00–16:00 candle edged back up to 26.823, but the hourly candle after 16:00 was still unclosed, and the 16:50 snapshot had returned to around 26.60. Looking only at one rising candle could make it easy to overlook the heavier selling pressure in the preceding stretch and the pullback after the rebound.
Open interest in the perpetual contract rose from around 1.0513 million VVV last night to around 1.0682 million VVV at 16:00, an increase of about 1.6%, while price fell over the same period. The most recently settled funding rate was 0.005% every four hours. Rising open interest only indicates that the number of open contracts has increased; by itself, it can’t establish that “shorts are adding positions” or “longs are buying the dip.” Nor is a modestly positive funding rate enough to infer a short squeeze. The verified project announcements don’t provide a basis for attributing this decline to any particular new development. The emissions reduction plan previously announced by Venice was discussed in my last post and shouldn’t be repeated as today’s immediate catalyst.
Next, I’m watching for two confirmations. 26.43 is the low reached in this move; if a subsequent complete hourly candle breaks below it and the price fails to recover, weakness could continue. Above, the first level to watch is around today’s rebound high of 27.07. The price would need to reclaim that level and hold it on a retest, with volume picking up, for the recovery to be more convincing. Price, open interest, and funding rates all change; these are conditions to watch, not a certain path or an order recommendation.
As of 16:50 Beijing time on October 7, the latest Binance contract price was around 26.60 USDT, down 5.10% over the rolling 24 hours, with about 28.13 million USDT in trading volume. The range high was 28.768 and the low was 26.430. On the hourly chart, the price reached a high of 28.768 at 22:00 last night and then pulled back. The complete hourly candle at 10:00 today touched 26.430, with about 2.74 million USDT in trading volume. By contrast, each of the three rebound hours from 13:00 to 15:00 had less than 700,000 USDT in volume. The price has bounced, but volume hasn’t shown that buyers have regained control of the pace.
The four-hour chart also can’t simply be described as “a bottom is in.” The 08:00–12:00 candle closed at 26.700; the 12:00–16:00 candle edged back up to 26.823, but the hourly candle after 16:00 was still unclosed, and the 16:50 snapshot had returned to around 26.60. Looking only at one rising candle could make it easy to overlook the heavier selling pressure in the preceding stretch and the pullback after the rebound.
Open interest in the perpetual contract rose from around 1.0513 million VVV last night to around 1.0682 million VVV at 16:00, an increase of about 1.6%, while price fell over the same period. The most recently settled funding rate was 0.005% every four hours. Rising open interest only indicates that the number of open contracts has increased; by itself, it can’t establish that “shorts are adding positions” or “longs are buying the dip.” Nor is a modestly positive funding rate enough to infer a short squeeze. The verified project announcements don’t provide a basis for attributing this decline to any particular new development. The emissions reduction plan previously announced by Venice was discussed in my last post and shouldn’t be repeated as today’s immediate catalyst.
Next, I’m watching for two confirmations. 26.43 is the low reached in this move; if a subsequent complete hourly candle breaks below it and the price fails to recover, weakness could continue. Above, the first level to watch is around today’s rebound high of 27.07. The price would need to reclaim that level and hold it on a retest, with volume picking up, for the recovery to be more convincing. Price, open interest, and funding rates all change; these are conditions to watch, not a certain path or an order recommendation.
