OP drops nearly 11% to $0.1208: OI in contracts rises 14%—what confirmation should traders wait for before a rebound?

Bottom line: OPUSDT spot was trading at around $0.1208 at approximately 16:40 Beijing time on October 7, down about 10.85% over 24 hours, after hitting an intraday low of $0.1198. As the price weakened rapidly, the number of perpetual open-interest contracts increased by 14.09% over roughly 30 hours, while their notional value rose by just 3.38%. This looks more like leveraged positions continuing to enter during the decline than a market that has already completed a thorough position turnover. Negative funding rates alone are not a buy-the-dip signal; wait for a rebound or breakdown to be confirmed by a closed candle.

I. Spot and futures are weakening in tandem

Binance spot 24-hour data: latest price around $0.1208, 24-hour high of 0.1358 and low of 0.1198, with trading volume of approximately 7.657 million USDT and a change of -10.849%. USDⓈ-M perpetual latest price around 0.12077, 24-hour high of 0.13576 and low of 0.11959, with trading volume of approximately 39.415 million USDT and a decline of 10.792%. Prices and declines are similar, so there is currently no clear divergence in which spot is significantly stronger than futures.

The approximately 30-hour history of 1-hour OI (API snapshots from 11:00 on October 6 to 16:00 on October 7, Beijing time) shows that open interest increased from approximately 132.89 million OP to 151.61 million OP, up 14.09%; based on the open interest value provided by the API, it rose from approximately $17.745 million to $18.345 million, up 3.38%. The increase in quantity was notably greater than the increase in value, indicating that the price decline offset some of the growth in notional size. The latest funding rate is approximately -0.0207% per 8 hours, meaning shorts are paying; however, this only indicates bearish futures pricing and does not, by itself, prove that selling pressure has ended.

II. What the closing candles tell us about this decline

The most recent closed 1-hour candle closed at $0.1211, with a range of 0.1208–0.1216 and trading volume of approximately 267,000 USDT, about 0.88 times the average volume of the previous 20 closed 1-hour candles. The most recent closed 4-hour candle also closed at 0.1211, with a range of 0.1208–0.1224 and trading volume of approximately 1.013 million USDT, about 1.04 times the average of the previous 20 candles. In other words, the price has clearly broken down from its short-term structure, but volume on the latest closed candle has not continued to expand to an extreme level. The key thing to watch next is whether the price can stabilize at these lows—not to conclude from a single long bearish candle that the trend has run its course.

On the daily chart, the most recent completed trading day closed at 0.1305, with a high of 0.1390, a low of 0.1298, and trading volume of approximately 4.830 million USDT, just 0.54 times the average of the previous 20 completed days. The current price is already below that daily close and near the low, indicating that any short-term rebound will first face resistance around the previous trading day's lower boundary.

III. Three key price zones to watch next

1. 0.1196–0.1198: This is near the current intraday lows for both perpetual futures and spot. If a 4-hour candle closes decisively below this range and a subsequent rebound fails to reclaim it, the short-term downtrend may continue; an intraday wick alone does not count as confirmation.

2. 0.1224: The high of the most recently closed 4-hour candle. If a rebound cannot first reclaim this level, it should still be viewed as a bounce within a weak range. If the price closes above it, watch whether the area around 0.1256 can turn into support.

3. 0.1298–0.1305: The low and closing area of the previous completed daily candle, and a more significant rebound-confirmation zone after this sharp decline. Only if the price reclaims this zone and holds steadily above it could the daily breakdown be considered a potential false breakdown. Until then, a short-term rebound should not be described as a trend reversal.

IV. Risks and invalidation conditions

The main risk to guard against is the two-sided squeeze created by “falling prices and rising OI quantity”: if the price continues to break below the 0.1196 area, newly added leverage could amplify volatility; if the price quickly reclaims 0.1224 while OI declines at the same time, that could indicate short covering, and the rebound would not necessarily signal a new uptrend. A negative funding rate does not mean there is an advantage to going long. Trading also involves slippage, fees, changes in funding rates, and the risk of forced liquidation in futures.

This article is for recording public market data and analyzing market structure only; it does not constitute investment advice. Spot and perpetual futures are different markets. This article does not use any user's account, position, or trading records, and does not treat intraday prices as a confirmed closing breakout.

Data timestamp: Around 16:40 on October 7, 2026, Beijing time.

Sources: Binance Spot API 24-hour ticker and klines https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbol=OPUSDT , https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines?symbol=OPUSDT\u0026interval=1h\u0026limit=35 , https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines?symbol=OPUSDT\u0026interval=4h\u0026limit=35 , https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines?symbol=OPUSDT\u0026interval=1d\u0026limit=35 ; Binance USDⓈ-M Futures API 24-hour ticker, klines, OI, and funding rates https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/ticker/24hr?symbol=OPUSDT , https://fapi.binance.com/futures/data/openInterestHist?symbol=OPUSDT\u0026period=1h\u0026limit=30 , https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate?symbol=OPUSDT\u0026limit=10 , https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/premiumIndex?symbol=OPUSDT .