My outlook for $KORU over the next three days is still somewhat bearish, but I won't chase a short around 20.7.
The reason is simple: U.S. AI and semiconductor stocks haven't clearly turned bearish, but the Korean market isn't following their lead. The KOSPI came close to turning positive at one point today, but was pushed back down by the close. SK Hynix remains weak, and foreign investors are still selling. To me, this shows that the problem isn't that the AI thesis has broken down; it's that Korean investors are temporarily unwilling to pay higher prices.
Also, Samsung's large-scale buyback has ended, so that source of support is gone. What really matters next is who will step in to buy if foreign investors keep selling now that Samsung itself is no longer buying.
From the afternoon of October 7 through the U.S. close: choppy and somewhat weak at the lows. My baseline range is 20.4–21.2; I don't expect a straight-down plunge.
After the Korean market opens on October 8: this is the key moment. After Samsung's earnings come out, the main things to watch are whether Samsung and Hynix can hold their ground, and whether foreign investors keep selling. If the earnings only modestly beat expectations, the stock opens higher but then falls, and foreign investors continue selling, I expect KORU to keep moving below 20, with around 19.5 as the first target area.
From the evening of October 8 through October 9: if the Korean market has already seen a major sell-off during the day, while U.S. AI stocks haven't turned bearish too, I would actually lean toward a recovery from the lows. Only if U.S. semiconductor stocks also weaken would I look for a further move down toward 19 or even 18.8.
So I'm not expecting a straight-line drop from 20.7 to 18.
More likely: choppy trading tonight, then the Korean market decides tomorrow whether to sell off further. The actual low is more likely to come on October 8, after which the U.S. market will determine whether we recover or keep falling.
So my approach right now is simple: bearish outlook, but no chasing shorts. I'm waiting for the Korean market to give us the answer tomorrow.
The reason is simple: U.S. AI and semiconductor stocks haven't clearly turned bearish, but the Korean market isn't following their lead. The KOSPI came close to turning positive at one point today, but was pushed back down by the close. SK Hynix remains weak, and foreign investors are still selling. To me, this shows that the problem isn't that the AI thesis has broken down; it's that Korean investors are temporarily unwilling to pay higher prices.
Also, Samsung's large-scale buyback has ended, so that source of support is gone. What really matters next is who will step in to buy if foreign investors keep selling now that Samsung itself is no longer buying.
From the afternoon of October 7 through the U.S. close: choppy and somewhat weak at the lows. My baseline range is 20.4–21.2; I don't expect a straight-down plunge.
After the Korean market opens on October 8: this is the key moment. After Samsung's earnings come out, the main things to watch are whether Samsung and Hynix can hold their ground, and whether foreign investors keep selling. If the earnings only modestly beat expectations, the stock opens higher but then falls, and foreign investors continue selling, I expect KORU to keep moving below 20, with around 19.5 as the first target area.
From the evening of October 8 through October 9: if the Korean market has already seen a major sell-off during the day, while U.S. AI stocks haven't turned bearish too, I would actually lean toward a recovery from the lows. Only if U.S. semiconductor stocks also weaken would I look for a further move down toward 19 or even 18.8.
So I'm not expecting a straight-line drop from 20.7 to 18.
More likely: choppy trading tonight, then the Korean market decides tomorrow whether to sell off further. The actual low is more likely to come on October 8, after which the U.S. market will determine whether we recover or keep falling.
So my approach right now is simple: bearish outlook, but no chasing shorts. I'm waiting for the Korean market to give us the answer tomorrow.