The Nasdaq once again set a record closing high, but $BTC moved in the opposite direction, falling back to the lower end of its trading range. Liquidity flows between U.S. equities and crypto assets diverged sharply on the eve of the Fed’s release of its meeting minutes, with no broad-based, synchronized shift in market preference.

The current strength in U.S. equities is driven mainly by expectations for the tech sector and falling Treasury yields, while crypto markets lack fresh inflows to absorb selling pressure. The rates market currently has high expectations that rate hikes will be paused in October. If the minutes released this evening signal a more hawkish stance, Treasury yields could rebound at any time, putting double pressure on risk assets overall.

For bulls to maintain the current range-bound structure, they must defend the support zone around 83k. If hawkish minutes trigger a synchronized macro-driven pullback, a break below this level would mean the lower boundary of the range has failed, prompting defensive positions to retreat rapidly. Until the macro signals become clear, taking one-way bets on cross-asset spillover effects carries extremely high downside risk.