Odds of the Fed holding rates in October top 80%—don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal
The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October has climbed to 82.3%, cementing expectations of tighter macro liquidity in the short term. Some think rate cuts have merely been delayed and that buying now is a chance to scoop up the bottom. But I think that’s no different from trying to catch a falling knife. 📊
Meanwhile, shifts in the odds for baseball markets on the prediction platform Polymarket reveal how numb investors are to macro risks and how distracted their attention has become. While the market is still counting on rate cuts as a lifeline, a real increase in the cost of capital is drawing near. ⚾
Keep a close eye on three things next: first, whether Treasury yields continue to rise; second, whether stablecoin inflows to exchanges dry up; and third, how funding rates on leveraged contracts change. Don’t go looking for water in a dried-up pond. Once you see the numbers in your account shrink, you’ll understand just how reassuring it is to have cash on hand. 💧
#ProbabilityOfFedHoldingRatesInOctoberRisesTo82.3% $BTC
The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October has climbed to 82.3%, cementing expectations of tighter macro liquidity in the short term. Some think rate cuts have merely been delayed and that buying now is a chance to scoop up the bottom. But I think that’s no different from trying to catch a falling knife. 📊
Meanwhile, shifts in the odds for baseball markets on the prediction platform Polymarket reveal how numb investors are to macro risks and how distracted their attention has become. While the market is still counting on rate cuts as a lifeline, a real increase in the cost of capital is drawing near. ⚾
Keep a close eye on three things next: first, whether Treasury yields continue to rise; second, whether stablecoin inflows to exchanges dry up; and third, how funding rates on leveraged contracts change. Don’t go looking for water in a dried-up pond. Once you see the numbers in your account shrink, you’ll understand just how reassuring it is to have cash on hand. 💧
#ProbabilityOfFedHoldingRatesInOctoberRisesTo82.3% $BTC